[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GALE WARNING...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND END TUE
MORNING FOR THE AREA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 72W-74W IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN. THESE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN W ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND SOUTH AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 24W/25W FROM
11N-17N MOVING W 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE
LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST LIMITING ANY
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 44W/45W
FROM 9N-18N MOVING W 25-30 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND
THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST
LIMITING ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 64W/65W S OF 18N
TO OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. THE
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A PLUMB
OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST LIMITING ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 22N70W TO 12N82W
MOVING W-NW NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. WAVE IS ALSO W OF AN UPPER
RIDGE THAT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 21N81W TO INLAND OVER
HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N17W ALONG 9N29W TO 8N42W. THE ITCZ BEGINS
NEAR 9N46W AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N59W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75
NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA BETWEEN 10N-17N. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 18W-27W
AND FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 21W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE E CONUS
ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A 1013 MB LOW IS
ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA JUST N TO TAMPA BAY WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING W ALONG 27N87W TO 28N91W WITH A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 84W-91W AND
N OF 24N E OF 84W TO ACROSS FLORIDA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH A
1017 MB HIGH NEAR 23N86W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH WED. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERING THE
FAR W CARIBBEAN WITH A SECOND CUTOFF UPPER LOW CENTERED IN THE
NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N82W AND AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO
19N86W. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N W OF 85W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN S OF 18N BETWEEN 76W-86W ANCHORED NEAR 13N82W. AN N/S
ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED E OF LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 17N60W
GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN SW FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER CUBA PRIMARILY
BETWEEN 77W-83W. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 12N E OF 70W TO ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS THROUGH WED INCREASING TO NEAR GALE
FORCE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE COLOMBIA COAST EACH NIGHT...EXCEPT TO
MINIMAL GALE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT. W
CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE W
CARIBBEAN AND OUT OF THE AREA BY TUE. E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE
CONTINUE W MOVING INTO THE W CARIBBEAN BY WED. A THIRD TROPICAL
WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN ON LATE WED.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE W ATLC COVERING THE ISLAND. THE E
CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS JUST S OF THE ISLAND TUE
GIVING THE S PORTION CHANCES OF SHOWERS ON TUE. HOWEVER DAYTIME
HEATING COULD STILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENINGS HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE
FAR W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 70W WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH JUST N OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
REGION NEAR 32N52W AND EXTENDS ALONG 30N57W TO 31N62W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 32N BETWEEN BERMUDA AND
76W WHERE IT DIPS S TO A SURFACE TROUGH OVER JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 30N TO THE STATIONARY FRONT E OF
80W...SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM S
OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 30N78W TO OVER
FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH ABOUT 200 NM SW OF THE AZORES WITH A
NARROWING RIDGE AXIS S OF THE W ATLC FRONTAL SYSTEM AND EXTENDS
THROUGH 32N39W ALONG 27N50W TO A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 26N63W
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS NARROW RIDGE AXIS WILL
SHIFT SLIGHTLY S TUE NIGHT AND WED. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE A LITTLE E ON WED BUT WILL STALL AGAIN WED NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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