[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO START DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...IN THE WATERS THAT ARE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...
FROM 11N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE
FROM 11 FEET TO 14 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/
FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A 1015 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N
TO 10N BETWEEN 22W AND 30W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 04N TO
10N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W FROM PUERTO RICO
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 17N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 64W AND 67W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 13N17W TO THE 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE
27W TROPICAL WAVE...TO 08N35W AND 09N37W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 09N37W TO 08N40W...04N47W...INTO FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 04N54W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 09N
TO 13N BETWEEN 17W AND 21W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 05N TO 07N
BETWEEN 29W AND 34W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 05N TO 08N
BETWEEN 50W AND 58W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS
FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE REST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 28N79W...OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA. THE CYCLONIC CENTER IS
IN A TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N77W TO 28N79W...TO 26N79W IN
THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N64W TO 28N70W TO 26N74W AND 23N80W
AT THE COAST OF CUBA. A STATIONARY FRONT IS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...PASSING THROUGH 32N75W...TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N80W. THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
THE 1011 MB LOW CENTER TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND
NORTHWESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N94W TO 21N90W ALONG THE COAST OF
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 26/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 2.77 IN
BERMUDA.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
MEXICO...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 94W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN MEXICO
NEAR 27N106W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 94W EASTWARD. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
24N71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THROUGH A CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 1016 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N89W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 23N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND TO THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM 21N78W AT THE COAST OF CUBA...TO 15N83W AT THE
EASTERN PART OF HONDURAS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N82W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THIS CENTER IS ELONGATED FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER. UPPER LEVEL SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE 19N82W CENTER...FROM
HAITI WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN THE
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ON THE
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE 19N82W CYCLONIC CENTER.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS
WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 19.5N73.5W BETWEEN HAITI AND
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS
WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 19.5N73.5W BETWEEN HAITI AND
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL COVER
THE AREA...WITH ABUNDANT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL
COVER THE AREA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A SERIES OF INVERTED TROUGHS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 25N52W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 18N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 43W AND 60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
56W AND 64W. OVERCAST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CURLING AROUND THE
CYCLONIC CENTER...COVERING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 34N34W TO 28N46W...TO 24N59W...THROUGH 23N72W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO FLORIDA AND BEYOND...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO...AND TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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