[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W FROM 15N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N55W 10N58W 06N59W...
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...PLEASE READ THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE PRECIPITATION. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS NEAR THE WAVES MAY BE
MORE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W/94W FROM 16N IN THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG IS IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC BETWEEN 93W AND 96W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N23W TO 09N30W TO 08N40W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 08N40W TO 05N51W TO 08N56W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 16W AND
21W...AND FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 23W AND 33W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN MEXICO NEAR 24N100W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS GEORGIA
AND ALABAMA...RELATED TO A TROUGH THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. A SEPARATE BRANCH OF A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N73W TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N72W TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N78W TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO 28N85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT
IS ALONG 32N78W TO 31N81W IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...BEYOND
CENTRAL ALABAMA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO 23N80W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES
FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 25/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...IS 0.67 IN BERMUDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO
28N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS FROM 90W EASTWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...ALONG
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COAST OF CUBA THAT IS ALONG 80W...INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N91W.

PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
93W/94W TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM 21N78W AT THE COAST OF CUBA...TO 15N83W AT THE
EASTERN PART OF HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE OFF THE COAST OF CUBA WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 79W FROM 20N TO 21N. NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN
SOUTHEASTERN GUATEMALA.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND 80W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF PUERTO RICO.

THE MARINE FORECAST FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 13.5N
BETWEEN 73W AND 76W OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA CONSISTS OF
NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10
FEET. ADDITIONAL AREAS OF WIND ARE...ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 15N
BETWEEN 71W AND 78W NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS...AND
SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
24/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.18 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FOR HISPANIOLA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED
IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A PART OF A
RIDGE DEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WITH A RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA. THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY CUTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TOWARD
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT A RIDGE WILL CUT ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW. TWO
INVERTED TROUGHS PASS ACROSS HISPANIOLA...FROM THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD INTO AND INCLUDING THE 36-HOUR TIME PERIOD...
UNTIL THE END OF THE 48 HOUR PERIOD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 26N51W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 300 NM TO
THE EAST...AND WITHIN 500 NM TO THE WEST...OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 33N48W...TO 26N51W...TO 20N54W...TO 16N59W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 22N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 47W AND THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 32N63W TO
23N80W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 23N34W TO
12N33W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 11N TO 24N
BETWEEN 25W AND 50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 34N35W TO 28N46W...TO 23N60W...TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
26N91W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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