[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 33W FROM 9N-19N
MOVING W-NW 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS N OF ANY DEEP
MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST LIMITING ANY
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 68W/69W S OF 20N
TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA S
OF 15N TO OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 67W-72W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 82W S OF 20N TO
INLAND OVER PANAMA MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA S OF 15N W OF 80W TO INLAND
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W ALONG 9N22W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 9N31W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE WAVE NEAR 9N34W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 7N44W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-10N
BETWEEN 21W-34W AND FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 51W-55W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH E OF 17W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA...WITHIN 120/150 NM S OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 38W-42W...AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 40W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC COVERS THE NE GULF WHILE
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED IN THE S GULF NEAR 24N91W COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W
ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO NE TEXAS WITH A 1017 MB
HIGH NEAR 24N86W. THE WEAK DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE W
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS S
OF 12N BETWEEN 92W-93W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NE GULF N OF 28N E OF 86W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC HAS DEVELOPED INTO A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER HISPANIOLA WITH AN UPPER TROUGH COVERING
THE AREA BETWEEN 65W-80W AND IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
PORTIONS HISPANIOLA WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
OFF CENTRAL CUBA. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
EXTENDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN
THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE E
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 74W-79W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. W ATLC SURFACE
RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS THROUGH SAT
WITH STRONG TO OCCASIONAL NEAR GALE CONDITIONS OCCURRING OFF THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE TROPICAL WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE W DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
HAITI TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER LOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU BEFORE SHIFTING W FRI AND SAT. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ISLAND
THROUGH EARLY FRI GIVING THE ISLAND SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. LINGERING MOISTURE COULD STILL PRODUCE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENINGS
HOURS FRI AND SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC NEAR 29N78W COVERING
THE W ATLC W OF 70W. AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 25N46W WHILE A SECOND CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS OVER
HISPANIOLA GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND CENTRAL ATLC
BROAD TROUGHING. THIS IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 42W-66W. THE
ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB
HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 33N34WW AND EXTENDING A RIDGE
AXIS THROUGH A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 26N50W THEN W THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE RIDGE
WILL RETREAT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS A WEAK
LOW MOVES OFF THE SE GEORGIA COAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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