[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE IS NEAR
38.1N 66.9W...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS NE OF THE
TROPICAL STORM CENTER FROM 37N TO 41N BETWEEN 61W AND 66W. A NE
TO NNE MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY
TUESDAY MORNING AND CLAUDETTE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-
TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND TO DISSIPATE ON
WEDNESDAY. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS APPROXIMATELY
ALONG 24W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH
MODERATE MOIST AIR ACCORDING TO SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. ENHANCED METEOSAT IMAGERY SHOW SOME DRY AIR AND DUST IN
THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
APPROXIMATELY ALONG 40W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH SHALLOW MOIST AIR ACCORDING TO SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ENHANCED METEOSAT IMAGERY SHOW
EXTENSIVE SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTION AT THE TIME.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
APPROXIMATELY ALONG 65W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR N OF 15N AND A SHALLOW
MOIST AIRMASS IN THE SOUTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT THAT IS ENHANCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. STRONG DEEP LAYER
WIND SHEAR HINDERS CONVECTION ELSEWHERE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR W-NW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING APPROXIMATELY ALONG 86W...ACROSS HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA TO EPAC WATERS...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH SHALLOW MOIST AIR OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
ACCORDING TO SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THIS REGION OF THE CARIBBEAN AT THIS
TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO
07N23W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N26W AND CONTINUES ALONG 06N45W
TO 06N57W. ASIDE THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN
30W AND 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS ANCHORED OVER TEXAS
WITH THE SE PERIPHERY COVERING MOST OF THE GULF BASIN. WIND FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANTICYCLONE IS ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SE CONUS TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
THE EASTERN GULF. THIS MOISTURE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND TSTMS ON ALABAMA AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE OFFSHORE
WATERS N 28N AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. DEEP LAYER DRY
AIR IS WEST OF 90W ALONG WITH A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 27N92W...WHICH
IS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER. VARIABLE WINDS OF 5 KT DOMINATE ACROSS
THE BASIN. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OVER THE
NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE W-NW CARIBBEAN...A SECOND
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BEING DEPICTED BY SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. THIS MOIST AIR ALONG A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
AND TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA...THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF
18N BETWEEN 73W AND 83W AND OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA. NE TO
E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W
WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATES ELSEWHERE E OF
80W...LIGHTER VARIABLE WIND IS ON THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE TROPICAL
WAVES WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

ABUNDANT MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT BEING GENERATED BY A RIDGE
E OF 80W SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS OVER
HAITI AND THE NW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
EXTENDS TO NORTHERN HISPANIOLA OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER
TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. AN
ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC BETWEEN 70W
AND 80W EXTENDING TO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICT
MOISTURE INFLOW TO THE SW N ATLC FROM THE U.S. SE CONUS AND FROM
THE CARIBBEAN...WHICH ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 23N TO 30N
BETWEEN 66W AND 75W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS N OF HISPANIOLA...SEE
HISPANIOLA SECTION. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER
DOMINATE THE REMAINDER BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR
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