[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112332
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
17N27W TO 09N27W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES
WITH A WELL DEFINED 700 MB TROUGH AXIS. MODERATE TO HIGH
MOISTURE PREVAILS S OF 14N IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHILE SAHARAN
DUST IS OBSERVED N OF 14N. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS PRESENT
AT THIS TIME.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 16N43W TO 08N44W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
NORTHWARD SURGE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE. THERE IS ALSO SAHARAN DUST
IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
FROM 19N68W TO 11N70W. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE PREVAILS IN THE
ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE WHICH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION MAINLY N OF 15N BETWEEN 65W-72W AFFECTING PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA AND THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO
10N25W...THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 09N29W TO
08N34W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM THIS POINT TO 08N43W THEN RESUMES W
OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 08N46W TO 07N69W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE FEATURES AT THIS TIME.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS EXTENDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN US STATES REACHING THE NW GULF. TO THE SE...AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IN THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. THESE FEATURES ARE GENERATING A DIFFLUENT
FLOW ACROSS THE E GULF WATERS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE GULF MAINLY E OF
87W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
29N89W. WITH THIS...A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS
ACROSS THE BASIN. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS DEVELOPING OVER THE
EPAC AND THE CONVECTION RELATED TO IT EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
MEXICO REACHING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
MAINLY S OF 19N. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A SIMILAR WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED HENCE SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE E GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR
20N75W EXTENDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS CUBA...JAMAICA AND ITS ADJACENT
WATERS MAINLY N OF 17N AND W OF 75W. A DIFFLUENT FLOW PREVAILS
ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ACROSS HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THEIR ADJACENT WATERS N OF
15N AND E OF 73W. THIS CONVECTION COINCIDES WITH THE POSITION OF
A TROPICAL WAVE THAT ENTERED THE CARIBBEAN LAST NIGHT. FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THIS WAVE...PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE
BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DRIFTS NW.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE ISLAND WHICH IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR
20N75W AND EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC. ISOLATED
CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE BAMAHAS AND ATLANTIC WATERS
MAINLY S OF 22N AND W OF 64W. TO THE N...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM 33N72W TO 32N64W TO 39N56W SUPPORTING
ISOLATED CONVECTION N OF 29N BETWEEN 60W-70W. A SURFACE RIDGE
PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC WITH A BROAD SAHARAN
AIRMASS WHICH CONTINUES INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. TWO
TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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