[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102346
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS APPROXIMATELY
ALONG 37W...MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY DEPICTS MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE
ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE HOWEVER...SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WHICH IS INHIBITING ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN AND HENCE AFFECTING
THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS
APPROXIMATELY ALONG 61W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICTS A MAXIMUM IN MOISTURE ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS MAINLY S OF 14N WHILE THE
SURROUNDING OF THE WAVE REMAINS DRY AS A SAHARAN AIRMASS
PREVAILS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS FEATURE
AT THIS TIME.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 21N89W TO THE EPAC NEAR 10N89W...MOVING W AT 15
KT. THE WAVE IS BECOMING INDISTINCT IN TPW
IMAGERY...RAWINDSONDES...AND MODEL ANALYSES AS IT BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH THE LARGE MONSOONAL LOW IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
SOUTH OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 10-
21N AND W OF 89W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 20N16W TO
09N35W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 09N39W AND
CONTINUES TO 10N57W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED AT ABOUT 50
NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC REACHING THE
NE GULF. A LIGHT TO GENTLE SE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED N OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 21N73W
EXTENDS NW REACHING THE EASTERN GULF AND SUPPORTING ISOLATED
CONVECTION AFFECTING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND GULF WATERS
MAINLY E OF 86W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR
THE SURFACE RIDGE TO CONTINUE AS THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN WHILE ANOTHER ONE
REMAINS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CENTERED N OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 21N73W IS SUPPORTING
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS CUBA...HISPANIOLA AND THEIR ADJACENT
CARIBBEAN WATERS MAINLY N OF 21N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
PREVAILS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS S OF 10N
BETWEEN 77W-82W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN CONTINUES CONVECTION-
FREE AS A SAHARAN AIRMASS DOMINATES THE AREA. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS GENERATING GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
PREVAILING S OF 15N BETWEEN 70W-79W. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE MOVING W ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR
21N73W AND SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. A SIMILAR
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEREFORE
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
ISLAND IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR
21N73W IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC
MAINLY W OF 70W. TO THE E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N55W
TO 28N57W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
A SURFACE RIDGE AND A SAHARAN AIRMASS PREVAILS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING BENIGN WEATHER. EXPECT A
SIMILAR TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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