[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060532
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13.5N
BETWEEN 73W-78W THROUGH MON MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED
BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 50W
FROM 6N-15N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. SEE ITCZ
BELOW.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 59W S OF 16N
TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W-NW NEAR 25 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE
WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP
MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 86W S OF 19N TO
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 20N16W ALONG 11N21W TO 7N27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 6N40W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N48W THEN
RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 7N52W TO E OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 8N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 44W-55W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 32W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS AGAIN TONIGHT
EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST THROUGH AN UPPER LOW
NEAR 24N87W OVER THE E YUCATAN PENINSULA/YUCATAN CHANNEL
INCLUDING THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE
FROM 27N88W TO THE MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA BORDER. A SEA BREEZE
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-29N
E OF 85W TO OVER FLORIDA WHERE THE SHOWERS BECOME NUMEROUS.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST
REMAINS OVER THE W GULF LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA
TO A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO NE TEXAS. THIS
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 19N W OF 84W TO
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL
PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A
PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ARE ALLOWING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE
FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. A PERSISTENT STRONG ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF
COLOMBIA THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W
CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE BASIN MON. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE
WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT AND EXIT THE CARIBBEAN BY
WED NIGHT. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN MON
NIGHT/EARLY TUE AND THE W CARIBBEAN BY THU.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. THE PLUMB
OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST THAT HAS PLAGUED THE CARIBBEAN FOR
THE PAST SEVERALS DAYS IS KEEPING ANY LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS
FROM FURTHER DEVELOPING. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE S
COAST OF THE ISLAND MON EVENING INCREASING THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. TUE EVENING WILL BRING A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
THE S COAST OF THE ISLAND FURTHER INCREASING THE MOISTURE. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUE AND WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N78W AND IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO
GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND OVER FLORIDA WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N W OF 76W. LARGE THE UPPER LOW IS TO THE E
CENTERED NEAR 26N69W. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS TO THE NE OF THE
FIRST AND IS CENTERED NEAR 31N51W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N57W TO 26N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF
28N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY AN E/W
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR
33N41W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR
32N59W THEN ACROSS NE FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE NEXT PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN
DUST REMAINS OVER THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ TO 25N/26N TO THE
CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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