[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUL 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUES ALONG COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING FROM
12 TO 16 FT. GALE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT TWO
DAYS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 23W
FROM 05N TO 16N...MOVING W AT 10 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW TO MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...THE METEOSAT SAL TRACKING...PSEUDO-NATURAL AND DUST
IMAGERY SHOW THAT SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS OVER THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT...THUS INHIBITING CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 39W
...MOVING W AT 5 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. SIMILAR TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
WAVE...METEOSAT SAL TRACKING...PSEUDO-NATURAL AND DUST IMAGERY
SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST OVER THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH
IS INHIBITING CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 66W
...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW AND METEOSAT SAL TRACKING IMAGERY
SHOW THE WAVE IS MAINLY EMBEDDED IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG
STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR HINDERS CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 10N18W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 08N26W AND
CONTINUES TO 07N36W...RESUMING W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 06N41W TO
NORTHERN COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR 02N50W. ASIDE THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 06N TO 14N E OF 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

N-NE WIND FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NEW
MEXICO COVERS THE NW GULF AND THE FAR SW BASIN. AN ELONGATED
UPPER LOW COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN AND PROVIDES A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SW GULF THAT ALONG WITH MOISTURE INFLOW
FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORT A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS
S OF 24N W OF 94W. A MIDDLE-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW BASIN SUPPORT
A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 22N90W TO 18N93W LACKING CONVECTION.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER COASTAL WATERS OF THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
ALONG THE EASTERN PENINSULA TO NICARAGUA EPAC COASTAL WATERS.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER THE SE GULF FROM 24N-26N E
OF 87W. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ACROSS THE ATLC OCEAN
CONTINUE TO EXTENDS AN AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
GREAT PORTIONS OF THE GULF. SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT IS OVER
THE W AND SE GULF WHILE VARIABLE LIGHT WIND PERSISTS OVER THE NE
BASIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ACROSS
THE BASIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE ALONG COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS AND ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVED INLAND CENTRAL
AMERICA...BUT ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 45 NM OFF THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE AND
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 66W. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THIS
WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT S OF 15N THAT
ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE SE BASIN...INCLUDING THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR PUERTO RICO
AND ADJACENT WATERS. METEOSAT SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR
OVER THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT AS WELL AS AHEAD OF THE WAVE
EXTENDING W TO 86W...INCLUDING HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. ASIDE THE
GALE...NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN
69W AND 82W ASSOCIATED WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 13 FT. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN MONDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND...THUS HINDERING CONVECTION BUT SUPPORTING HAZY
CONDITIONS. FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON WHEN
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT
SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS BEING GENERATED BY THE LOW OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THIS UPPER FEATURE
FAVORS LIFTING OF MOIST AIR ADVECTED FROM THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN
TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 23N W OF 77W. BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN N OF 18N. A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS BEING ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM
30N56W TO 26N53W THAT IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS FARTHER E FROM 27N43W
TO 23N43W DEVOID OF CONVECTION. RIDGING WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE
ACROSS THE BASIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR
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