[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUL 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND THE LOWER PRESSURES OVER
SOUTH AMERICA WILL GENERATE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM 11.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W
STARTING BY 0600 UTC FRIDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING FROM 10
TO 15 FT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE W AFRICAN COAST EARLIER THIS
MORNING...WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N20W TO 07N20W. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY DEPICTS THIS WAVE EMBEDDED IN A BULGE OF MODERATE
MOISTURE. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG 11N BETWEEN 18W-
22W. METEOSAT PSEUDO-NATURAL AND SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOW
SAHARAN DUST ENGULFING THE WAVE...THUS LIMITING SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 13N38W TO 07N38W...MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 15
KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THIS WAVE EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. ISOLATED LIGHT TO
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED S OF 10N BETWEEN 37W-39W.

A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IS FARTHER W WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
13N50W TO 07N51W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SAHARAN DUST PREVAILS
IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT HINDERING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N60W TO 09N61W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY
SHOW THE WAVE IS MAINLY IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT AND WITH A SAHARAN
AIRMASS PREVAILING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN...NO CONVECTION IS
RELATED TO THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 19N82W TO 10N83W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AT AROUND 15-20 KT.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS MAINLY EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR
CONTINUES TO INHIBIT CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W THROUGH 09N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE BEGINS FROM 09N22W TO 08N38W THEN RESUMES W OF
A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 08N40W TO 07N58W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO
MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 30W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EXTENDS
ITS RIDGE W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
WHERE IT IS ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N86W.
WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA AND
EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...CUBA...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS S
OF 24N AND E OF 84W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE
SURFACE RIDGE TO DOMINATE THE REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA STARTING 0600 UTC FRIDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING
FROM 10 TO 15 FT. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE
BASIN...FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE.
A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
REACHING THE EPAC...IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
SUPPORTING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AND AFFECTING
THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 85W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SAHARAN AIRMASS WHICH CONTINUES TO
INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS S OF 16N BETWEEN 79W-79W. OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES TO CONTINUE MOVING W.
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SAHARAN DRY AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN INCLUDING HISPANIOLA WHERE DUST IS BEING REPORTED.
FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THIS LARGE
DRY AND DUSTY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DIFFLUENT FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC SUPPORTING
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS MAINLY W OF 76W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 33N49W.
WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE
TROPICAL WAVES...PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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