[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE JUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG 17W FROM 5N TO
16N WITH A 1012 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N17W HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX AT 30/0530 UTC. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SIX IS CENTERED NEAR 21.1N 18.4W AT 30/0530 UTC OR
ABOUT 387 NM E-SE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING
NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT G TO 40 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER OVER
THE NW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 10N BETWEEN 17W-21W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 46W/
47W FROM 9N-19N WITH A 1013 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND THE
LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN AREA OF AEROSOLS OR DUST
RIDING N OF THE INVERTED V THAT IS THE WAVE AXIS. NO ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ALONG 60W FROM
9N-20N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW
INDICATES THE WAVE IS TRAILING AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N-
20N BETWEEN THE WAVE AND 63W ENHANCED BY THE TRADE WINDS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE


1012 MB LOW IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES NEAR 10N17W ALONG 8N28W TO 7N38W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM
8N18W TO 7N23W AND FROM 7N25W TO 6N29W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 29W-
37W. AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH AMERICA COUPLED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVES FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 50W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER MOBILE BAY ALABAMA DOMINATING THE
GULF WATERS. AN UPPER RIDGE IS IN THE W ATLC GIVING THE AREA
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DIFFLUENT FLOW AND GENERATING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS W OF
LINE FROM THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W ALONG 25N84W
TO THE NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN NEAR 21N87W INCLUDING THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA. THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER THE W
COAST OF THE YUCATAN ARE MOVING INTO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF
20N E OF 92W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA WILL TRACK W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
OVERNIGHT THEN NW THROUGH THE E GULF SUN THROUGH TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE W CARIBBEAN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL HONDURAS TO CENTRAL CUBA CONTINUING INTO
THE W ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
EXTENDS FROM NEAR ANDROS ISLAND ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N78W TO
21N79W AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 76W-81W.
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 21N TO OVER W
CUBA BETWEEN 81W-86W. A MID LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF SW HAITI
NEAR 17N75W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 18N TO OVER W HISPANIOLA
AND E CUBA BETWEEN 71W-76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N E OF 80W. THE
ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE. THE SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL MOVE NW ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA
TONIGHT THEN INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO SUN. WIDESPREAD FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS. WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
TONIGHT THROUGH SUN. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT THEN INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE.

...HISPANIOLA...
A MID LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF SW HAITI NEAR 17N75W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 18N TO OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ALL OF HAITI. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING NW
OUT OF THE AREA. LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT PASSAGE OF
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE ISLAND SUN. HOWEVER
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE E AS THE TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES MOVES ACROSS THE ISLAND MON AND
TUE. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ISLAND MON AND
TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA EXTENDS FROM
ANDROS ISLAND NEAR 24N78W TO ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N78W. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS IN THE W ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 30N76W COVERING THE AREA W
OF 70W. THE AREA OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HAS DIFFLUENT FLOW
AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS W OF 78W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 74W-78W. A ELONGATED E/W
UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N57W AND IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FORM 31N46W ALONG 28N50W TO 26N56W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 57W-69W. THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE WITH A 1023 MB
HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR 32N66W...A 1020 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 24N50W...AND A SECOND 1020 HIGH NEAR 25N40W. THE
SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL MOVE NW
ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA TONIGHT THEN INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO
SUN. OTHERWISE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
MON AND TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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