[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...ERIKA CONTINUES TO SOAK HISPANIOLA...
...HEADING FOR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 72.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM W OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic
* Haiti
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas
* The Cuban Provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, and Guantanamo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in eastern and central Cuba, as well as the
southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, should monitor the
progress of Erika.  Additional watches and warnings could be
needed for these areas on Saturday after Erika moves off of
Hispaniola.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
estimated near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 72.9 West. Erika is
moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward
speed during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of
Erika will move over the Gulf of Gonave early Saturday and will be
near the southeastern Bahamas or eastern Cuba on Saturday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast and Erika could become a tropical depression
on Saturday. There is a good possibility that Erika could even
degenerate into a trough of low pressure while it is moving over the
high terrain of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions across portions of the Dominican
Republic are gradually subsiding. Tropical storm conditions are
spreading across Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands and
the southeastern Bahamas overnight, and the central Bahamas
on Saturday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible over eastern
Cuba on Saturday and in the northwestern Bahamas by Saturday night.

RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches possible across
portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti and eastern Cuba through
Sunday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods
and mud slides.  In addition, the outer bands of Erika are also
expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches across the
Turks and Caicos Islands as well as the southeastern and central
Bahamas through Sunday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila
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