[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
200 AM AST FRI AUG 28 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 66.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic from the northern border with Haiti eastward
and southward to Isla Saona
* Haiti
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque
* Central Bahamas

Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic should monitor the
progress of Erika.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 66.6 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is anticipated later today, and this general motion
is expected to continue through Saturday. On the forecast track, the
center of Erika will move near Puerto Rico during the next several
hours and move near or over portions of the Dominican Republic later
today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. St. Thomas recently reported a wind gust to 48 mph
(78 km/h), and a Puerto Rico Seismic Network station at Yabucoa
Harbor in southeastern Puerto Rico recently reported a wind gust of
47 mph (76 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting the Virgin
Islands and portions of Puerto Rico, and will continue for the next
several hours. These conditions should spread westward across
portions of the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and
the Turks and Caicos Islands later today and tonight. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the central Bahamas by late
Saturday.

RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches possible across
portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and
the southeastern Bahamas through Saturday.  These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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