[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
800 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015

...ERIKA SOAKING PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 64.7W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands, and
a Tropical Storm Watch for the Central Bahamas.

The Government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical
Storm Watch for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from west
of Isla Saona to Punta Palenque.

The Meteorological Service of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Anguilla, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat.

The Meteorological Service of Curacao has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius.

The Meteorological Service of St. Maarten has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warning for St. Maarten.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic from the northern border with Haiti eastward
and southward to Isla Saona
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque
* Central Bahamas

Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic and in Haiti should
monitor the progress of Erika.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 64.7 West. Erika has
slowed down a little and is now moving westward near 12 mph (19
km/h). Erika should resume a west-northwest track with a slight
increase in forward speed later tonight. This general motion is
expected to continue for the next 48 hours.  On the forecast track,
the center of Erika will move near the Virgin Islands this evening,
move near or over Puerto Rico tonight, and move near or over the
Dominican Republic on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. No significant change in strength is forecast during the next
48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
primarily to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions should reach the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico tonight, and these conditions should spread westward
across portions of the Dominican Republic on Friday, and the
southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands late Friday.

RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches possible across
portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the
southeastern Bahamas through Saturday.  These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila
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