[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 232041
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042015
500 PM AST SUN AUG 23 2015

Danny has become decidedly less organized since earlier today.  The
low-level circulation center became exposed to the southwest of the
main area of deep convection, and that deep convection has become
rather ragged-looking.  The current intensity estimate is set
to 35 kt based on a blend of Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB.
This is also consistent with recent data buoy observations.  Danny
should remain in an environment of moderately strong shear and dry
mid-tropospheric air for the next few days.  These unfavorable
factors should cause weakening to a remnant low in 36 to 48 hours,
and dissipation thereafter.  If the global models are correct,
however, Danny could dissipate sooner than shown here.

Danny continues to move a little south of the previously estimated
track, and the initial motion estimate is 260/14.  This is likely
due to the fact that it is becoming a shallow circulation.  A low-
to mid-level ridge to the north of Danny should provide a continued
westward or a little north of westward motion for the next 72 hours
or so.  The track models have shifted even a little farther to the
south on this cycle, so the official forecast is adjusted
accordingly.  This is close to the dynamical model consensus.

Although tropical storm watches or warnings are not in effect for
Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy, the government of France
has issued a warning for heavy rain and strong winds for those
islands.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 15.6N  59.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 15.8N  60.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 16.2N  63.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 16.6N  66.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z 17.2N  68.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  26/1800Z 18.6N  73.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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