[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 200605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY AT 20/0300 UTC IS NEAR 12.1N
42.7W...OR 1100 NM TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST...OR 295 DEGREES...09 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N
TO 14N BETWEEN 42W AND 47W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N22W...TO THE CENTER
OF THE AREA OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 09N25W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 23W
AND 30W. THE METEOSAT EXPERIMENTAL ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST THAT ARE SURROUNDING THE
FEATURE. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. 700 MB
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS CLEARLY SHOWS THE WAVE AXIS WHILE 850 MB
RELATIVE VORTICITY INDICATES A MAXIMUM ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N59W TO 14N62W TO
08N63W IN VENEZUELA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA AND TRINIDAD. THE 700 MB STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES
CURVATURE ALOFT ALONG THE WAVE AXIS WHILE 850 MB VORTICITY
SHOWS A MAXIMUM ACROSS NE VENEZUELA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 16N17W TO 14N23W 12N32W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N47W TO
10N54W...TO THE COAST BORDER AREA OF GUYANA AND VENEZUELA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 08N AND
13N3N CITIES OF AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN AFRICA INTO.
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 09N TO 10N BETWEEN 49W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N85W TO THE SW
THROUGH 26N90W TO SE MEXICO OVER THE CHIVELA PASS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA
COASTAL AREAS.

LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE
ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE GULF THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG RETURN SE FLOW ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE
GULF...INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG EACH EVENING AND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SURFACE TROUGHING FORMS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA BEFORE PUSHING TO THE W INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO.
SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FT ACROSS THE NE HALF...AND 4-6 FT ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 74W WESTWARD. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 18N84W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG IN CUBA BETWEEN 77W AND 82W. BROKEN MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS ARE BETWEEN 75W AND 84W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA CONSISTS OF A MIXTURE OF UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW WITH UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW BETWEEN 66W AND 73W. MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA THAT IS FROM 64W EASTWARD.

MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA WHERE STRONG TO NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST...AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE
WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 FEET...EXCEPT UP TO 13
FEET NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND UP TO 7 FEET IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS.

...HISPANIOLA...

OBSERVATIONS...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO...IN LA
ROMANA...IN PUNTA CANA...AND IN SANTIAGO. A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING AND FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUERTO
PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL CUT
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. A TROUGH WILL CUT
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE
U.S.A...AND IT WILL PASS DIRECTLY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. THE 500
MB FORECAST SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL CUT ACROSS THE AREA. THE 700
MB FORECAST SHOWS THAT MULTIPLE INVERTED TROUGHS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 35N64W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 27N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 56W AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 35W AND 56W...THANKS TO TWO
INDIVICUAL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS THAT ARE ALONG AND JUST
TO THE NORTH OF 32N IN THAT AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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