[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 110603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N21W 15N22W 11N23W...
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 08N TO 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 25W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W FROM 19N
SOUTHWARD MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE COINCIDES
WITH A 700 MB TROUGH. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS THAT ARE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 39W AND 45W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W FROM 22N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE COINCIDES
WITH A 700 MB TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 50W AND 58W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 14N17W...TO 10N24W AND 09N34W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
09N34W TO 09N40W 07N45W 07N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 06N TO 10N
BETWEEN 34W AND 51W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM
05N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO...APART FROM THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE 18N87W NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES 25N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO A GULF OF MEXICO 1013 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N92W. THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY CONTINUES TO
THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. ONE INDIVIDUAL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS WITHIN
THE COMPARATIVELY LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 18N87W. A SECOND CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 17N76W JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
JAMAICA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...FROM 10N TO THE COASTAL BORDER AREAS OF
GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WIND FLOW
EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT
COVERS THE AREA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG COVERS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 10N80W TO 16N81W TO
22N82W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL 17N76W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT 17N76W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD WITH TIME...
AND IT WILL END UP IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN CUBA...
HAITI...AND JAMAICA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB AND FOR
700 MB SHOWS THAT INVERTED TROUGHS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST...ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO
30N75W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG
32N71W 29N76W...TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N65W TO 28N67W TO 22N77W. A
SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 30N59W TO A
26N62W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N63W.

AN UPPER LEVEL LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N25W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N28W...TO A SECOND CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N43W...TO 21N52W. CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 240 NM TO 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE AREAS OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 22N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N51W TO
28N62W 25N72W...THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO A GULF OF
MEXICO 1013 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N92W. THE
RIDGE EVENTUALLY CONTINUES TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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