[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101052
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16W/17W FROM 23N
SOUTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 18W AND 21W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 20W AND 22W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE COINCIDES
WITH A 700 MB TROUGH. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS THAT ARE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE COINCIDES
WITH A 700 MB TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 56W AND 58W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 14N18W TO 10N24W TO 08N30W AND
08N40W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N40W TO 08N51W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 60 NM
TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 09N22W 09N30W 06N37W 07N42W 11N50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO...APART FROM THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE 21N85W NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 89W AND
91W. THE EARLIER PRECIPITATION THAT WAS MOVING OFFSHORE...AWAY
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF FLORIDA...HAS WEAKENED AND
DISSIPATED.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 22N67W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO
A GULF OF MEXICO 1014 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
26N92W. THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY CONTINUES TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF
COAST.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. ONE INDIVIDUAL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS WITHIN
THE COMPARATIVELY LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 21N85W. A SECOND CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 16N73W JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 10N90W...INTO SOUTHERN GUATEMALA AND
EL SALVADOR...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA
SOUTHWARD...ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
THIS WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE AREA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE
EARLIER PRECIPITATION THAT WAS OFF THE COAST OF HAITI HAS
WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IS BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA.

AN 800 MB TO 600 MB INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 80W FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY-TO-NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL 16N73W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... THE
EARLIER PRECIPITATION THAT WAS OFF THE COAST OF HAITI HAS
WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IS BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT 16N72W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD WITH TIME...
AND IT WILL END UP IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN CUBA...
HAITI...AND JAMAICA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB AND FOR
700 MB SHOWS THAT INVERTED TROUGHS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST...ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WEAKENING
32N66W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A 30N61W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 26N62W...AND TO 19N65W. AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N69W. ANOTHER MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FIRST
ONE...AND IT PASSES THROUGH 32N71W TO 29N75W...ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND CUBA...TO A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
21N83W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N70W TO 29N75W TO 27N80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND LOCALLY STRONG COVERS
THE AREA FROM THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND
80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING
AT 10/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.44 IN
BERMUDA.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO A 23N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 22N TO 32N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 59W AND 70W.

AN UPPER LEVEL LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N24W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N30W...TO A SECOND CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N41W...TO 14N42W. CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 21N41W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 24N45W AND
27N49W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN MOST OF THE AREAS OF THE CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW...EXCEPT WITHIN A RADIUS OF 150 NM TO 240 NM OF THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE 30N24W CYCLONIC CENTER.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 21N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N51W TO
27N58W 22N67W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO A GULF OF MEXICO 1014 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N92W. THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY CONTINUES TO
THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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