[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071739
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
FROM 15N45W TO 08N45W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 40W
AND 50W. DEEP MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO AN AREA S OF 12N
SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION BETWEEN 42W-46W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
20N16W TO 10N42W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
09N46W TO 10N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 500 NM
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 51W-59W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US HAS ITS AXIS EXTENDING SW
REACHING THE NE GULF MAINLY E OF 90W SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS
FROM 26N-29N AFFECTING THE GULF WATERS AND NORTHERN FLORIDA.
FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE GULF ALONG
25N. A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
FROM 23N93W TO 20N94W WITH NO CONVECTION. SCATTEROMETER DATA
DEPICTS A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN.
EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
PREVAILS MAINLY S OF 15N WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NE OF
PUERTO RICO EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. A
STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW REACHING THE CARIBBEAN. ALL THESE
FEATURES COMBINE TO KEEP THE BASIN UNDER A FAIR WEATHER REGIME.
TO THE E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE LEEWARD ANTILLES
FROM 18N61W TO 14N61W. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W
ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION. SCATTEROMETER
DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND. A SURFACE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE LEEWARD ANTILLES WILL APPROACH THE ISLAND
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENHANCING CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS
EASTERN US COAST IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC MAINLY N OF 27N AND W OF 73W. TO THE E...A
SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N69W. AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS BEING REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE AS A TROUGH
WHICH EXTENDS FROM 31N63W TO 24N61W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED AT ABOUT 100 NM E OF THIS BOUNDARY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
OBSERVED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...PLEASE REFER TO THE
SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 28 W OF
70W AND NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 61W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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