[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061748
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU AUG 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13.5N
23.5W...IT IS ABOUT 90 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST INDICATES THAT IN
24 HOURS THE LOW CENTER WILL BE IN AN AREA OF BROAD AND
ELONGATED NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...
ABOUT 460 NM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WHERE IT IS NOW.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 12N TO 21N
BETWEEN 18W AND 30W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N38W 13N37W 10N36W...
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN
INVERTED 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 30W AND 38W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13N55W.
THE FORECAST FOR THIS LOW CENTER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FOR
IT TO MOVE WESTWARD AND OPEN INTO A SURFACE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 54W AND 56W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE BORDER
OF MAURITANIA AND SENEGAL NEAR 16N16W...TO 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 13.5N 23.5W...TO 10N29W AND 09N40W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 09N40W TO 08N50W 09N54W AND 09N59W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS
FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 27W AND 34W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE
FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 25W AND 50W...AND FROM 05N TO 11N
BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 19N97W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
AROUND THE 19N97W CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 09N IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN TO 25N IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN 85W AND 104W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 23N NORTHWARD BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 94W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 30N61W TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N74W...CROSSING CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE
CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...EVENTUALLY HEADING
TOWARD 20N10WW IN SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 19N97W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
AROUND THE 19N97W CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 09N IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN TO 25N IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN 85W AND 104W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE BETWEEN JAMAICA...
HAITI...AND CUBA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTER
CORNER OF THE AREA.

LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA. PART OF THE WIND FLOW IN THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BREAKS AWAY FROM THE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW. THAT WIND FLOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AS IT IS CAUGHT UP IN LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW. COMPARATIVELY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE SAME AREA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
06/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.12 IN MERIDA
IN MEXICO.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA. MIDDLE
LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW ALSO IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING
OBSERVED IN PORT-AU-PRINCE. IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA AND IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA
CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO
PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TWO ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERS WILL BE WITHIN 120 NM TO THE SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST TWO-THIRDS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD TIME. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS EVENTUALLY
WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BY
THEN END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA...WITH A RIDGE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...AND AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS FORECAST TO
BE ABOUT 650 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. AN INVERTED
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT GENERALLY
EAST-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WIND REGIME WILL BE INTERRUPTED AT TIMES BY INVERTED TROUGHS
THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ALSO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ABOUT 300 NM TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE COASTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA...FROM 28N NORTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG...TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE
FROM 32N64W TO 28N70W TO 28N80W BEYOND 32N80W.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N59W. UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 17N TO 32N BETWEEN 50W AND 73W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS ARE FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 50W AND 61W. ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN 53W AND 61W.

ONE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 36N45W TO 32N47W TO 25N53W. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE
PASSES THROUGH 30N61W TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 28N74W...CROSSING CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...EVENTUALLY HEADING TOWARD 20N10WW
IN SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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