[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...
SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS FROM 11N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 74W AND
76.5W. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL 1800
UTC TODAY. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE COINCIDES
WITH AN INVERTED 700 MB TROUGH. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 11N21W. THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AND TO
BE ABSORBED INTO A TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N
TO 13N BETWEEN 19W AND 21W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG IN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FROM 07N
TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 37W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N49W. IT
APPEARS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 40W/41W SIX HOURS
AGO HAS BEEN ABSORBED INTO THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W.

THE TROPICAL WAVE...THAT WAS ALONG 58W/59W FOR THE 05/0600 UTC
SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS...WAS DISCONTINUED FOR THE 05/1200 UTC
ANALYSIS IT IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 92W FROM 19N SOUTHWARD...CUTTING ACROSS
SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...MOVING WESTWARD
20 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
APPARENT WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL AFRICA...NEAR 14N17W
IN SENEGAL TO THE 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
11N21W...TO 09N32W TO 10N34W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N34W TO
12N40W...TO A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 12N49W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND
37W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN
50W AND 62W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM SOUTH AMERICA TO 10N BETWEEN
50W AND 56W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA. THIS WIND FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
AND THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH. THAT
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS PART OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM THAT ALSO
COVERS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND MEXICO
BETWEEN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND 100W. THE INVERTED TROUGH IS
ALONG 10N89W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...16N91W IN
GUATEMALA...TO 24N90W IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
IN THE COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL PLAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA... MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

A SURFACE RIDGE CUTS RIGHT THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WESTWARD.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED
TROUGH COVERS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND
MEXICO BETWEEN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND 100W. THE INVERTED
TROUGH IS ALONG 10N89W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...16N91W IN
GUATEMALA...TO 24N90W IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
FROM 11N IN SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...FROM THE ISLANDS THAT ARE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS NORTHWARD.

LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 80W EASTWARD. COMPARATIVELY DRY AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE SAME AREA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
05/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.44 IN
MERIDA IN MEXICO...0.21 IN NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS...0.12 IN SAN
JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...AND 0.06 IN TRINIDAD.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES
HISPANIOLA. MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW ALSO IS MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 80W EASTWARD.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING
OBSERVED IN PORT-AU-PRINCE. IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. RAINSHOWERS ARE OCCURRING AROUND
SANTO DOMINGO WITH FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND OTHER SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN
LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA.
RAINSHOWERS AND A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN SANTIAGO.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER WILL BE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT FIRST EASTERLY
WIND FLOW...AND THEN NORTHEAST-TO-NORTH WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE
AREA. HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 60W
TROUGH...AND A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...
ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE THAT WILL EXTEND FROM CUBA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N56W. UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 200 NM TO 300 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 32N49W TO 27N57W 22N60W. ONE SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 53W/54W FROM 20N TO 27N. THIS TROUGH IS MARKED
BY A SWIRL OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N62W 24N63W 20N65W. THIS
TROUGH IS MARKED BY A SWIRL OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 48W AND 60W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR
29N20W TO 19N30W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
SURROUNDS THE 29N20W CYCLONIC CENTER. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES OVER BERMUDA TO THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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