[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 17N16W TO 10N19W TO 5N19W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT.
THE GOES-R AIRMASS PRODUCT SHOWS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
MAINLY IN THE N-NW WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHERE SOME DUST IS ALSO
OBSERVED. MIDDLE-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN THE CENTRAL WAVE
ENVIRONMENT WHILE HIGH CLOUDS ARE SW OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 13W-17W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120
NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AXIS S OF 10N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N39W TO 14N42W  TO 7N44W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. THE SSMI TPW
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THE GOES-R
AIRMASS PRODUCT SHOWS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR N OF THE
WAVE ENVIRONMENT DEVOID OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 22N82W TO 10N84W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS
BENEATH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 180 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
5N20W TO 5N29W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N29W TO 7N42W. THE ITCZ
RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 7N45W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 5N54W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W-32W...AND BETWEEN 50W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
FLORIDA AT 31N82W TO A 1009 MB LOW S OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA AT
30N87W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 27N90W TO
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT 26N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO FROM
25N-31N BETWEEN 80W-85W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE W GULF FROM 11N-27N BETWEEN 90W-97W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND
S MEXICO S OF 20N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE NE GULF SUPPORTING THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N95W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
OVER TEXAS AND THE TEXAS COAST. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE
SURFACE LOW TO MOVE E TO THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N77W WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING W TO THE  FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH CONTINUED
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT A SURFACE TROUGH TO BE OVER THE W GULF
WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE.
ELSEWHERE 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER
MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA...N COLOMBIA...AND NW VENEZUELA.
ELSEWHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST
S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N72W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING W TO N
NICARAGUA ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER CUBA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W... WHILE THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES SLOWLY E.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEAR HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS SHOWERS TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE N FLORIDA ATLANTIC
COAST W OF 78W AND N OF 26N. A 1008 MB LOW IS JUST W OF BERMUDA
NEAR 32N66W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO CENTERED NEAR 33N65W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N-33N BETWEEN 58W-65W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 19N49W
TO 14N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN
46W-49W. A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 37N18W. IN ADDITION OVER THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N53W ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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