[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
17N34W TO 7N34W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. THE SSMI TPW AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THE GOES-R AIRMASS
PRODUCT SHOWS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR N OF THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT DEVOID OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 12N-
18N BETWEEN 31W-37W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 22N77W TO 9N78W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS
BENEATH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 70W-
73W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF
THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
9N20W TO 9N23W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N23W TO 10N28W TO 6N34W
TO 7N50W TO 10N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE
COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 18W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA AT 31N81W TO
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 29N90W TO A 1010 MB LOW OFF
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT 26N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 81W-90W...AND FROM 23N-
27N BETWEEN 90W-94W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 94W-98W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO CONTINUED TO
PRODUCE CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT A SURFACE TROUGH TO BE OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE.
ELSEWHERE 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO S MEXICO. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 15N E OF 67W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST S
OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N74W ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE E... WHILE THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEAR HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE ISLAND FROM 18N-20N
BETWEEN 70W-73W. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING AND POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1012 MB LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ARE CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 32N65W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE
CENTER IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
28N-33N BETWEEN 55W-64W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 26N49W TO 23N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90
NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 14N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE E SEMICIRCLE. A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N19W. IN ADDITION OVER THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO
NEAR 21N67W PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 22N-26N
BETWEEN 63W-68W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
29N34W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 27W-33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA

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