[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 260003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
23N31W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 20N32W TO 16N33W...MOVING W AT 10
KT. METEOSAT SAL TRACKING IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS
HINDERING CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 22N61W TO 10N63W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WHICH ALONG AN ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL LOW EXTENDING SW FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE NE
CARIBBEAN SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED
TSTMS N OF 15N E OF 68W...INCLUDING THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N84W TO 10N84W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. HIGH
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WHICH ALONG A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF 82W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
11N30W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 14N44W TO 12N48W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 12N48W TO 12N55W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 10N-13N E OF 18W
AND FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 39W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD ELONGATED TROUGH IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.A
EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS TROUGH SUPPORT A
WARM FRONT ALONG 29N92W TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 26N96W FROM WHICH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S ALONG 23N95W TO 19N94W. THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS GENERATING DIFFLUENT FLOW IN
THE NW GULF WHICH ALONG ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SUPPORT
RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 24N W OF 90W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE
TROUGH ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL-
SOUTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE SE GULF ALONG 26N81W TO 25N85W TO
25N89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT. A TROPICAL WAVE  CURRENTLY IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SEE
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. THE WEAK LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS AND
MOVE INLAND ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING BY LATE
FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RELATIVELY DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS NOTED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED NEAR 19N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
IN THAT REGION BEING INFLUENCED BY A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED
ALONG 84W. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
LARGELY INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 21N57W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING TO THE NE OF
THE EASTERN BASIN. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A ZONE OF DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVELS SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG
CUBA AND CENTRAL-SOUTHERN HAITI AS WELL AS ADJACENT WATERS OF
BOTH TERRITORIES. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE AFFECTING HISPANIOLA
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A DIFFLUENT FLOW ZONE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVELS SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN
CENTRAL-SOUTHERN HAITI AS WELL AS ADJACENT WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY ON THE EASTERN WILL BE AFFECTING HISPANIOLA SATURDAY
TO SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD ELONGATED TROUGH IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.A
EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF...THUS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG 30N78W SW TO 27N80W ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE
SE GULF. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N77W TO 23N79W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM N OF 23N W OF
75W. TO THE E-SE...A BROAD ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 21N57W THAT SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH
EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING S OF 22N BETWEEN
59W-65W ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 62W. SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
RIDGING INFLUENCES THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC
GENERALLY N OF 23N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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