[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250007
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
24N30W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 19N31W TO 14N31W...MOVING W AT 10
KT. METEOSAT SAL TRACKING IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT
WHICH IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE NE
QUADRANT OF THE LOW UP TO 30N AND 22W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 330 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N53W TO 13N56W...MOVING W-NW AT 15-20 KT.
THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MIDDLE TO LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AIR
TRAILING THE WAVE AXIS WHERE CONVECTION IS DEVOIDED.
HOWEVER...AHEAD OF THE WAVE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
23N59W IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM
19N-25N WITHIN 500 NM WEST OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 360 NM WEST OF THE AXIS S OF 16N...AFFECTING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N76W TO 9N77W...MOVING W AT 10 KT.
MODERATE TO HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 17N W
OF 70W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE
E PAC WATERS. SEE THE PACIFIC TROPICAL DISCUSSION FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16N16W TO
12N30W TO 11N38W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 11N38W INTO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 14N44W TO 13N55W.
ASIDE FROM CONVECTION OCCURRING WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-16N BETWEEN 22W-
32W...AND FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 41W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHORT-WAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE GULF SUPPORTING A
STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM
28N80W TO 27N82W AND INTO THE GULF WATERS TO 25N86W. IT ALSO
SUPPORTS A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN GULF NEAR
28N88W TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 23N95W AND A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS S
FROM THE LOW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N95W. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONT IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT E OF 86W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE YUCANTAN
PENINSULA ALONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND
TSTMS IN THAT REGION AS WELL AS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE LOW AND
FRONT ON THE WESTERN GULF IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THU
MORNING WHILE THE STATIONARY FRONT WEAKENS. A TRPCL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
FRIDAY TO SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 90W OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA THAT SUPPORTS A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND NW
CARIBBEAN. FOCUSED ON AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED NEAR 18N82W...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
N OF 12N W OF 80W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS. FARTHER EAST...A TRPCL WAVE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CUBA
AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ENHANCING SHOWERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-
80W...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...CUBA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND
JAMAICA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE EASTERN BASIN BETWEEN 65W-
70W. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE LIES TO THE EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 55W AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE
BASIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND
PRECIPITATION.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY...A TROPICAL WAVE LIES ALONG 75W BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS SW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. AS THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES FARTHER WEST...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE LATE THU TO FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLC STATES
WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING SW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE
LOW AND TROUGHING SUPPORT A 1016 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N78W AND
AN ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER TO
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH
PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH A TRPLC WAVE EXTENDS FROM 30N74W TO
23N76W WHERE HIGH MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS BETWEEN 73W-78W. A BROAD
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N58W THAT SUPPORTS
A BROAD AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 57W-63W.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING INFLUENCES THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC N OF 23N WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SHEAR
LINE ANALYZED FROM 29N29W TO 28N45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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