[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
25N32W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 20N33W TO 14N33W...MOVING W AT 10
KT. BOTH THE METEOSAT SAL TRACKING IMAGERY AND THE SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT
WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 140 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N58W TO 12N58W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT.
STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR PREVAILS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS
WAVE WHICH COMBINED WITH A DRY AIRMASS AT LOW LEVELS IS
INHIBITING CONVECTION. AHEAD OF THE WAVE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR 23N59W IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 19N-26N BETWEEN 55W-63W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN ALONG THE AXIS S OF 15N...AFFECTING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
ADJACENT WATERS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CUBA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
22N78W TO 10N79W...MOVING W AT 10 KT. MODERATE TO HIGH DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED TO THIS FEATURE E OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 18N209N BETWEEN 75W-77W. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 79W-81W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND EXTENDING
TO THE PACIFIC WATERS. SEE THE PACIFIC TROPICAL DISCUSSION FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 20N17W TO
14N25W TO 13N30W TO 10N37W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N37W INTO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 14N44W THEN
STARTS AGAIN FROM 12N547W TO 11N57W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION
OCCURRING WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 24W-31W AND FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 41W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF SUPPORTING A
STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 25N97W TO 28N83W ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM OF EACH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAINLY W OF 90W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PREVAILING E OF 86W.
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE
ACROSS BASIN. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY FRIDAY TO SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THERE IS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS CUBA. FOR MORE
INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE. AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 20N87W PAIRED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED
FROM 22N86W TO 14N89W IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION CONTINUES S OF 12N ENHANCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE
PACIFIC. OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE BASIN BY TONIGHT/FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE PROXIMITY OF A TROPICAL WAVE OVER EASTERN CUBA IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION SW HAITI. AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES FARTHER
WEST...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER TODAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THERE ARE TWO TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS 20N AFFECTION THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ATLANTIC. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
EASTERN US INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN GULF ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE WEST ATLANTIC FROM 29N81W TO 35N76W
AND THEN N INTO THE N ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CONTINUES
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 27N77W. THESE SYSTEMS
ARE ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN CONTINUES BEING TRANSPORTED TO THIS AREA. A SURFACE
TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 32N77W TO 24N78W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE PREVAILING AT ABOUT 100 NM E AND W FROM THE
BOUNDARY. TO THE E...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N63W IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 55W-61W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 24N-
31N BETWEEN 22W-31W. SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN N OF 30N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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