[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 211119
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 22W/23W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD AT 21/0000 UTC WAS MOVED TO 32W/33W FROM 19N SOUTHWARD
FOR THIS MAP ANALYSIS TIME. IT WAS MOVED BASED ON TPW IMAGERY.
A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 15.5N 21.5W IN THE MONSOON
TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N19W 14N20W 11N24W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N55W 16N56W 10N56W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 47W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 64W IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N51W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE 26N51W CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
18N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 62W. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE SOUTH
OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 26N51W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/77W FROM CUBA...
ACROSS JAMAICA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE
LAST 24 HOURS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA
AND 76W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 18N82W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM
16N TO 17N BETWEEN 81W AND 82W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 12N NORTHWARD FROM 76W WESTWARD.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 17N16W...TO THE 1010 MB LOW CENTER...TO 10N31W
AND 8N38W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N38W TO 8N50W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 13N
BETWEEN 24W AND 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTH
CAROLINA AND GEORGIA...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N76W AND IT CURVES TO 30N76W 28N78W AND 28N80W. A WARM FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 28N80W...ACROSS FLORIDA...AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 27N91W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W
EASTWARD. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE WATERS THAT ARE ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED
STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 68W AND
76W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WELL AWAY TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
OF THE TROUGH. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN NORTH
CENTRAL MEXICO.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM THE TEXAS COAST NEAR
29N91W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TO MEXICO NEAR 18N92W. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING CYCLONICALLY
AROUND THE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 28N SOUTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...
KMZG...KBBF...KGVX...KVAF...KEMK...KGHB...KATP...AND KMDJ.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN TEXAS...IN ALICE AND IN
CORPUS CHRISTI...HEAVY RAIN IS AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN
CORPUS CHRISTI. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES
OR LESS WITH FOG WERE BEING REPORTED IN PERRY FLORIDA DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS. THE SKY AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS IMPROVED WITH
THE LAST OBSERVATION. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN SAINT
PETERSBURG FLORIDA. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING OBSERVED IN SARASOTA
FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 18N82W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 16N TO 17N
BETWEEN 81W AND 82W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM 12N NORTHWARD FROM 76W WESTWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...ACROSS JAMAICA...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
OF THE 76W/77W TROPICAL WAVE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 74W AND BEYOND 86W IN
COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 5N TO 10N
FROM 90W EASTWARD.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 66W AND THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/77W FROM CUBA...
ACROSS JAMAICA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE
LAST 24 HOURS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA
AND 76W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 18N82W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM
16N TO 17N BETWEEN 81W AND 82W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 12N NORTHWARD FROM 76W WESTWARD.

CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...RAINSHOWERS WITH
THUNDER HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO DURING THE LAST FOUR
HOURS OR SO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...AND OTHER FEW TO
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED AROUND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. A RIDGE WILL
FOLLOW THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS
THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24
HOURS...AND THEN THE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO JAMAICA...TO
HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR
THE REST OF THE TIME PERIOD.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 26N51W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 26N51W
CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W
AND 62W. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 26N51W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND
70W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 68W/69W FROM 20N TO 27N.
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 62W AND 74W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...TO 15N30W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N13W TO
31N13W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM THE
CANARY ISLANDS TO THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO BETWEEN 14W AND 20W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 22N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 34W AND 70W. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
ALONG 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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