[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 151801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR 27.3N 55.5W AT 15/1500 UTC OR
ABOUT 560 NM E-SE OF BERMUDA MOVING NW AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST...AND EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
LATER TONIGHT. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF
THE CENTER FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 53W AND 58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF EDOUARD FROM 30N-32N
BETWEEN 50W AND 58W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
17N24W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 11N24W TO 8N24W...MOVING WEST AT 15
KT. SSMI TPW INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE S OF
16N FROM 19W TO 28W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
IN THE AREA OF DEEPEST MOISTURE FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 24W AND 29W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
20N44W TO A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 17N45W TO 9N46W...MOVING WEST AT 15-
20 KT. SSMI TPW INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE S OF
21N BETWEEN 36W AND 48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 43W AND 48W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS S MEXICO AND E PAC WATERS WITH
AXIS ALONG 93W AND MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 18N16W TO
A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 11N24W TO 8N47W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM
8N47W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N58W. BESIDES THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 30W-40W...AND FROM 6N-10N
BETWEEN 42W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LA COAST
NEAR 24N91W INTO THE NW GULF THROUGH 28N94W TO THE N MEXICO
COAST NEAR 25N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 100NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS OVER THE W GULF FROM 27N94W TO 19N95W. A TROPICAL WAVE
DISCUSSED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 27N W OF 93W. A
REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IN TH NE GULF FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 83W-77W.
THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE WEST OF THE BASIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND OVER TX/MEXICO ON
TUESDAY WHILE THE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT NORTH AND INLAND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

MODERATE MOISTURE IS COMBINING WITH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE OVER THE W AND SW CARIBBEAN TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N-22N BETWEEN 80W AND 88W. THE
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A 1011 MB
SURFACE LOW NEAR 11N81W ALONG THE EASTERN END OF THE E PACIFIC
MONSOON TROUGH. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND E CARIBBEAN AROUND AN UPPER LOW IN THE W ATLANTIC CENTERED
NEAR 24N66W. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. FAIR WEATHER
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN ON
WEDNESDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

MODERATE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND AN UPPER
LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N66W IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
IN PLACE AND ONLY MODERATE MOISTURE PRESENT...NO DEEP CONVECTION
OTHER THAN DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N66W COMBINED WITH
MODERATE MOISTURE SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 68W AND 72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM
29N-31N BETWEEN 73W AND 79W. OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION
ABOVE...HURRICANE EDOUARD AND THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE THE
MAIN FEATURES IN THE ATLANTIC. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND
TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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