[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 151437
TCDAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
1100 AM AST MON SEP 15 2014

Satellite images show that the eye of Edouard has become larger
and more distinct during the past few hours, with a fairly
symmetric inner-core convective pattern.  Despite the improved
structure, Dvorak classifications were unchanged from earlier so
the initial wind speed is held at 90 kt.  Three NOAA hurricane
hunter aircraft are currently en route to investigate Edouard and
will provide excellent data to help assess its intensity and
structure.

Edouard has been moving on a steady northwestward path at about 13
kt for the past 24 hours, but a gradual turn toward the north is
expected during the next day or so while the subtropical ridge to
its north shifts eastward and weakens.  By late Tuesday and
Wednesday, Edouard is forecast to be embedded in the mid-latitude
westerlies, causing the cyclone to accelerate to the northeast.  A
decrease in forward speed and a turn to the east or southeast is
predicted by the end of the forecast period when the system is
steered by the flow to the west of a deep-layer low over the
northeast Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast is nudged to the left
of the previous track through 72 hours, toward the latest TVCA
guidance.

Some strengthening appears likely during the next 24 to 36 hours
while the hurricane remains in favorable conditions.  Beyond that
time, cooler water, dry air, and a pronounced increase in shear
should cause the system to weaken steadily.  Post-tropical
transition is expected by day 4 when the cyclone is forecast to be
over sea surface temperature below 23 C.  The post-tropical phase of
the track and intensity forecast is partially based on guidance from
NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/1500Z 27.3N  55.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 28.6N  56.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 30.5N  57.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  17/0000Z 32.8N  56.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  17/1200Z 35.4N  54.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  18/1200Z 40.0N  45.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  19/1200Z 40.5N  38.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  20/1200Z 40.0N  34.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



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