[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 140239
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 13 2014

The compact inner-core of Edouard has become a little more
organized during the evening.  A low- to mid-level eye-like feature
has intermittently appeared in microwave imagery, however, a 2206
GMI image suggests that the low-level center remains displaced
slightly to the south of the mid-level center.  The intensity has
been increased to 55 kt, based on the Dvorak classification from
TAFB and a timely 2354 UTC ASCAT-B pass that showed believable wind
vectors of 49-51 kt.

Upper-level outflow has expanded to the west, and to a lesser
degree, the south, indicative of decreasing vertical wind shear.
Intensification is expected due to a more conducive environment,
with the only obvious impediment being some marginally dry air,
primarily to the south and east of Edouard.  The intensity guidance,
particularly DSHP, is forecasting a higher peak intensity this
cycle.  The intensity forecast has been increased slightly for the
first 96 hours of the forecast and remains very close to the
consensus aid IVCN.  By day 5, Edouard will be well embedded within
the mid-latitude westerlies, and weakening is expected while
extratropical transition occurs.

Edouard continues to move steadily toward the northwest and the
estimated initial motion is 305/12. There has been remarkable
run-to-run consistency in the track guidance for the past 4 cycles.
Edouard is still expected to move on a general northwestward track
for the next couple of days before reaching a weakness in the
subtropical ridge and recurving. The NHC forecast has not been
changed substantially and remains very close to the multi-model
consensus TVCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0300Z 23.4N  48.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 24.5N  50.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 25.9N  52.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 27.2N  54.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  16/0000Z 28.6N  56.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  17/0000Z 32.2N  57.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  18/0000Z 38.0N  52.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  19/0000Z 42.0N  42.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Beven


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