[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 131438
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 13 2014

Although Edouard has lost most of the deep convection, it has a
vigorous low-level circulation. Dvorak t-numbers still support an
initial intensity of 45 kt.  There are some arc clouds currently
moving away from the main circulation suggesting that no important
changes in intensity are expected during the next few hours.
However, the shear is decreasing and this is already reflected in
the current better defined upper-level outflow. The low shear, in
combination with the pool of anomalous warm waters ahead of Edouard,
should result in strengthening, and the cyclone should become a
hurricane on Sunday or early Monday. The NHC forecast follows the
guidance and is very close to the intensity consensus ICON.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the northwest or
305 degrees at 11 kt. The steering environment has not changed, with
the cyclone's motion being controlled by the subtropical ridge.
This pattern will keep Edouard on the same general track for the
next 2 to 3 days. After that time, the subtropical ridge will weaken
and move east allowing Edouard to turn north, and then recurve
into the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC forecast is close
to the multi-model consensus TVCA, which has been very consistent in
turning the cyclone northward over the Central Atlantic for the past
several model cycles.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/1500Z 21.7N  46.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  14/0000Z 22.7N  48.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  14/1200Z 24.2N  50.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  15/0000Z 25.7N  52.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  15/1200Z 27.1N  55.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  16/1200Z 30.5N  57.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  17/1200Z 35.0N  55.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  18/1200Z 40.0N  47.5W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila



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