[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD AT 12/2100 UTC IS NEAR
19.5N 44.1W. EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 11 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED AROUND THE CENTER OF THE
SYSTEM...FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 42W-46W. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 15N25W TO 06N26W...THROUGH A 1009 MB SURFACE
LOW NEAR 12N26W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
IS STILL WELL DEFINED BUT THE CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE WEAKENING
COMPARED TO EARLIER TODAY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
10N-14N BETWEEN 26W-28W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE HISPANIOLA. ITS AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 20N71W  TO 11N71W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE WAVE FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 69W-73W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 71W-74W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N17W TO 08N35W. THE ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 10N50W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA NEAR 08N59W. ASIDE
FROM THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION
ABOVE...ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NOTICED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A NEARLY STATIONARY 1009 MB SURFACE LOW CONTINUES OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N95W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH OF
THE LOW TO NEAR 25N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
19N-26N BETWEEN 90W AND 98W. TO THE EAST...A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW
IS EXITING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ENTERING THE GULF WATERS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN
82W-84W. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS OVER MEXICO
WITH CENTER NEAR 21N100W. AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH REMAINS OVER
SOUTHERN US WITH CENTER NEAR 33N88W. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN
THESE SYSTEMS IS KEEPING A DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF WHICH IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA. THERE
IS ALSO SOME DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF BETWEEN THE SAME
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH AND A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC. THIS INTERACTION IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION NEAR THE
SURFACE LOW EXITING FLORIDA. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THE
FLORIDA SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING W INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
BRINGING INSTABILITY TO GENERATE CONVECTION. THE SURFACE LOW AND
TROUGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL CONTINUE BRINGING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS PART OF THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION GENERATED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER
HISPANIOLA...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES
ACROSS CUBA AND JAMAICA MAINLY CAUSED BY DAYTIME HEATING. THIS
ACTIVITY IS MOVING OFFSHORE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS S OF CUBA
AND WESTERN JAMAICA FROM 18N-22N. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS VISIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN NEAR PANAMA MAINLY
ALONG 12N...BETWEEN 74W-83W. AT UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER-
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 22N65W. THIS
SYSTEM IS KEEPING A NW UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN.
SOME WEAK DIFFLUENCE CAN BE NOTICED NEAR PANAMA WHICH IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION PRESENT OVER THE AREA. OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...PRODUCING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE
SUPPORTING CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND ENHANCING CONVECTION
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW DOMINATES ACROSS THE AREA WITH CENTER NEAR 22N65W.
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND BEHIND THE
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BRINGING FAIR WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE T.S. EDOUARD AND THE
TROPICAL WAVE S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS (PLEASE SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES AND TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS FOR MORE
DETAILS)...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH
LOCATED FROM 31N64W TO 26N70W. THIS ACTIVITY IS FROM 22N-31N
BETWEEN 64W-70W. THERE IS ALSO AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N-29N
BETWEEN 75W-80W RELATED TO THE SURFACE LOW EXITING THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED N OF PUERTO RICO
WITH CENTER NEAR 22N65W. THIS LOW IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH OVER SOUTHERN US TO GENERATE DIFFLUENCE NEAR THE
BAHAMAS SUPPORTING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RIVERA


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