[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 121149
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD AT 12/0900 UTC IS NEAR
17.6N 41.7W. EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...OR
295 DEGREES...13 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD
ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT1. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 17N
TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 43W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 32W AND 45W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W FROM 15N
SOUTHWARD...BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE IS MOVING
WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 23W AND 27W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 9N TO 15N BETWEEN 18W
AND 32W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION ALSO MAY
BE PART OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT MOSTLY IS RELATED TO THE
MONSOON TROUGH.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W FROM 19N SOUTHWARD.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS...BETWEEN THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF
AN ALREADY-EXISTING MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 22N64W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA ALONG 64W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 60W
AND 66W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN
68W AND 70W...POSSIBLY WITH THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM PUERTO RICO TO 20N ALSO MAY BE
RELATED MORE TO THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

A SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24N96W...
TO 19N97W IN MEXICO...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR
14N98W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...FROM 23N SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...FROM 90W WESTWARD. THE WAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF AN ALREADY-EXISTING MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
22N97W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE COASTAL
PLAINS/COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS AND MEXICO.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 18N16W...TO 14N20W 10N25W AND 12N32W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 11N39W TO 8N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 35W AND 36W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND
40W...AND FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE COAST/IN THE
COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST...CURVING
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...TO A 22N97W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST...BEYOND THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. A SEPARATE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N87W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N FROM 90W WESTWARD.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 23N TO 27N FROM 90W WESTWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1018 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N72W...ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...TO 28N95W...ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...AND BEYOND
NORTHERN MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...
KIKT AND K1B7.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA...AND IN
THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM MARATHON KEY TO THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN
KEY WEST AND AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED...IN PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI... AT
THE NAVAL AIR STATION NEAR MILTON FLORIDA IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 24N92W TO 19N92W. EXPECT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET
FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 89W AND 92W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A RIDGE RUNS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
CENTRAL AMERICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN THE EASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND HONDURAS...FROM 19N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 83W
AND LAND. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG ALSO IS IN THE WATERS
THAT ARE BETWEEN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HAITI.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N FROM 74W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND
SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N SOUTHWARD FROM 75W WESTWARD...FROM
THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
FROM 8 TO 9 FEET FROM 11.5N TO 15N BETWEEN 68W AND 77W. EXPECT
ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET
ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 76W AND 82W. A SECOND AREA OF
CONCERN CONSISTS OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 16N TO 19N TO THE WEST OF 85W...
INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...
AFFECTING THE WESTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT
ARE NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN 31N73W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 26N79W...TO
24N80W. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N80W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 23N
TO 30N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W. THIS INCLUDES IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...IN THE BAHAMAS...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF FLORIDA...AND IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO
THE EAST OF 84W.

...HISPANIOLA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
FROM A 33N55W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A
22N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO THE COAST OF
VENEZUELA ALONG 64W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO CENTRAL AMERICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 32N69W 27N66W 23N72W. THIS TROUGH SHOWS UP
WELL IN THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND IN THE SCATTEROMETER
DATA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 63W AND 69W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 32N
FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 60W AND
70W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG ALSO IS IN THE WATERS THAT ARE
BETWEEN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HAITI.

CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED AROUND
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE
CURRENT TROUGH THAT SPANS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA FIRST...FOLLOWED BY
AN INVERTED TROUGH...FOLLOWED BY SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE
GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FIRST. THE TROUGH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE...
THAT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N20W TO
27N21W TO 24N25W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 26N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 40W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
FOR THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 15N36W. EXPECT
NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 10 FEET
FROM 15N TO 21N TO THE EAST OF 37W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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