[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111144
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 28W AND
32W...AND FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 37W AND 48W.
THE TROUGH AND THE LOW CENTER ARE MOVING THROUGH AN AREA THAT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE CHANCE OF THIS FEATURE BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W...FROM 21N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 57W
AND 61W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N
TO 12N BETWEEN 58W AND 63W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 53W AND 63W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W/92W FROM 24N SOUTHWARD...IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE PART OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO THAT IS BETWEEN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA. THE WAVE IS AFFECTING WEATHER IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO...IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IN PARTS OF THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FOR CENTRAL AMERICA
AND MEXICO. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STARTS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO AND THAT REACHES A 21N94W GULF OF MEXICO CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
TROUGH. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM 13N INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC BETWEEN 92W AND 96W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 28N SOUTHWARD
TO THE EAST OF 90W...AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO FROM 25N SOUTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SENEGAL NEAR 16N16W...TO 14N21W...TO THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS THE ALONG THE 35W/36W SPECIAL FEATURE TROPICAL
WAVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER TO 9N43W. THE ITCZ IS NOT APPARENT IN THE DATA AT THIS
TIME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 27W. ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR INFORMATION
ABOUT THE 91W/92W TROPICAL WAVE.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS COMPARATIVELY FLAT AND WEAK AT
THIS TIME. THE RIDGE THAT WAS APPARENT AT 11/0000 UTC IS NOT
APPARENT AT THIS TIME. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH GEORGIA
INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...
KMZG...KGVX...KAXO...AND KMDJ.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN IN LOUISIANA...IN PARTS OF THE MOBILE ALABAMA
METROPOLITAN AREA...IN PARTS OF THE PANAMA CITY METROPOLITAN
AREA...IN MARIANNA FLORIDA. RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED IN COASTAL
SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS.
VISIBILITIES ARE AT 3 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG IN CRESTVIEW
FLORIDA IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
THE 91W/92W TROPICAL WAVE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N FROM 74W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND
WESTERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 4N ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST
OF COLOMBIA TO 11N BETWEEN 73W IN COLOMBIA AND 80W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
FROM 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 68W AND 80W. A SECOND
AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF THE 24-HOUR FORECAST OF EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET TO THE
SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 85W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...AND
FLORIDA...AFFECTING THE WESTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN THAT ARE NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...AND THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS WITHIN 90 NM TO 120 NM
TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA...MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N74W TO A
1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N77W. THE TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM 27N77W TO ANDROS ISLAND. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 25N
TO 30N BETWEEN 71W AND 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. THE ENVIRONMENT INTO WHICH THIS
FEATURE IS MOVING IS FORECAST TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THE FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD
FLORIDA SLOWLY. AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM
LATER TODAY IF IT BECOMES NECESSARY. THE LOW AND TROUGH FEATURE
WILL BRING HEAVY RAINS TO SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N59W...TO
27N62W...TO A 22N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE TROUGH
CONTINUES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM THE 22N64W CYCLONIC
CENTER TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N65W. A SURFACE TROUGH
CURVES ALONG 31N61W 28N63W 24N63W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W
AND 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN
60W AND 70W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS
MODEL FOR 500 MB AND FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF
THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N59W...TO
27N62W...TO A 22N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE TROUGH
CONTINUES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM THE 22N64W CYCLONIC
CENTER TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N65W. A SURFACE TROUGH
CURVES ALONG 31N61W 28N63W 24N63W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W
AND 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN
60W AND 70W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS
ALONG 31N/32N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 29N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 40W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 24N
NORTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
FOR THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 15N36W. EXPECT
NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 10 FEET
FROM 15N TO 21N TO THE EAST OF 37W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net