[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN CLUSTERS FROM 9N
TO 15N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 18N
TO 23N BETWEEN 48W AND 52W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N86W...
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO HONDURAS AND BEYOND
NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20
KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE 24N79W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH...TOWARD THE AREA OF A GULF OF
MEXICO 22N89W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE MONA
PASSAGE TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF PANAMA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SENEGAL NEAR 16N16W...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE 29W/30W
TROPICAL WAVE...TO 9N34W TO 8N41W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N41W
TO 9N52W AND 8N59W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 19W AND 21W...AND FROM
9N TO 11N BETWEEN 24W AND 27W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N86W...
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO HONDURAS AND BEYOND
NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20
KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE 24N79W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH...TOWARD THE AREA OF A GULF OF
MEXICO 22N89W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE MONA
PASSAGE TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF PANAMA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR...IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF 29N85W 25N90W 23N92W 20N90W...AROUND THE 22N89W
CYCLONIC CENTER.

A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N86W...
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO HONDURAS AND BEYOND
NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20
KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE 24N79W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH...TOWARD THE AREA OF A GULF OF
MEXICO 22N89W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE MONA
PASSAGE TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF PANAMA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO
11N78W...BEYOND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF COSTA RICA...INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 3N TO 10N IN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA AND
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA...
BETWEEN 72W AND 80W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
FROM 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 12N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 70W AND 81W. EXPECT
ALSO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE
SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 67W AND 70W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN
CONSISTS OF THE 24-HOUR FORECAST OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20
TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 17N TO 20N TO THE
WEST OF 82W.

...A 24N79W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THAT AFFECTS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO...INCLUDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL 24N79W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND...THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA...
AND CUBA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 84W EASTWARD...
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 70W
WESTWARD...AND FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 84W EASTWARD.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W ABOUT 90 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF JAMAICA. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 69W AND
80W...AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 27N SOUTHWARD FROM 84W
EASTWARD.

CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED. FOR
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SANTO
DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS
MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR
700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...RELATED TO A RIDGE.
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA...WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH...DURING THE REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 26N57W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 32N BETWEEN 43W AND 70W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN
48W AND 52W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO...TO 27N26W...TO 28N40W. THE SOUTHERNMOST END OF A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N14W TO 31N15W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW
LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM 20N47W 23N40W 24N30W 27N20W BEYOND 32N10W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
FOR THE 12-HOUR FORECAST OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET
FROM 13N TO 17N TO THE EAST OF 36W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net