[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 090554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A 1011 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11.5N. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 16N BETWEEN 24W AND 36W. THE CHANCE
OF THIS FEATURE DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24N42W 19N43W 14N44W
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N36W 22N42W 19N46W
15N48W 12N49W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM CENTRAL
CUBA TO 17N81W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN 22N75W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS
AND CUBA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...AND FLORIDA FROM 12N TO 32N BETWEEN 66W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND 85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN
68W AND 72W...AND IN THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...IN THE MONA
PASSAGE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM
20N TO 26N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 20N16W TO 16N21W...TO THE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS PART OF THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION...TO 8N38W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N38W TO 7N49W AND TO FRENCH GUIANA NEAR
4N54W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 37W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 80W WESTWARD...THE GULF
OF MEXICO FROM 25N SOUTHWARD...AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN THAT ARE TO THE WEST OF CENTRAL AMERICA
AND TO THE SOUTH OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG AND BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE AREA...IN GENERAL.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N NORTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD. A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS INLAND...FROM CENTRAL ALABAMA
INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 25N NORTHWARD FROM 86W WESTWARD.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N85W 27N86W 25N87W IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE
WATERS FROM 24N NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND
86W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 23N97W 21N96W 19N94W IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER
THE AREA...IN GENERAL.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE ICAO STATION
KIKT.

VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG ARE BEING REPORTED IN
PATTERSON LOUISIANA...AND FROM SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO
SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA. RAINSHOWERS...LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...AND
VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG COVER THE AREAS BETWEEN
GULF SHORES ALABAMA AND DESTIN FLORIDA. SOME RAINSHOWERS HAVE
BEEN REPORTED ALSO IN APALACHICOLA DURING THE LAST FEW
OBSERVATIONS. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN THE
FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING OBSERVED AT
THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM CENTRAL
CUBA TO 17N81W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN 22N75W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS
AND CUBA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...AND FLORIDA FROM 12N TO 32N BETWEEN 66W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND 85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN
68W AND 72W...AND IN THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...IN THE MONA
PASSAGE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM
20N TO 26N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 80W WESTWARD...THE GULF
OF MEXICO FROM 25N SOUTHWARD...AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN THAT ARE TO THE WEST OF CENTRAL AMERICA
AND TO THE SOUTH OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG AND BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE AREA...IN GENERAL.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM LAKE MARACAIBO IN
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...TO 11N79W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...BEYOND 10N85W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA THAT IS FROM 14N SOUTHWARD FROM 75W
WESTWARD IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 10
FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 67W AND 73W. A SECOND AREA OF
CONCERN CONSISTS OF EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO
10 FEET ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LINE FROM 18N79W TO
12N67W.

...HISPANIOLA...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM CENTRAL
CUBA TO 17N81W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN 22N75W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS
AND CUBA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...AND FLORIDA FROM 12N TO 32N BETWEEN 66W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND 85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN
68W AND 72W...AND IN THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...IN THE MONA
PASSAGE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM
20N TO 26N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO AND PUNTA CANA. FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE
BEING REPORTED IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE WIND FLOW
ACROSS HISPANIOLA WILL BE FIRST SOUTHERLY...THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY...AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY...DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH A
TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
CYCLE. THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW FOR THE REST OF 48 HOUR TIME PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR
700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...RELATED TO A NORTHEAST-
TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN TO CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N49W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A 27N55W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 18N55W...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR TRINIDAD AND VENEZUELA. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
27N54W... TO 25N55W AND 25N58W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 44W AND 70W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N24W TO
27N31W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N18W TO 28N27W BEYOND 32N40W. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 26N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 14W AND
44W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 32N63W...TO 31N72W...TO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
FOR THE 24-HOUR FORECAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET
FROM 13N TO 18N TO THE EAST OF 37W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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