[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061148
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD.
A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N. THE
WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 13N TO
17N BETWEEN 29W AND 31W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 9N TO 20N
BETWEEN 47W AND 56W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N73W
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS HAITI...TO COASTAL COLOMBIA
NEAR 10N74W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS AS IT PASSES
THROUGH HAITI. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...BEING ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 25N70W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE 25N70W CYCLONIC CENTER BETWEEN NORTHEASTERN COASTAL
HISPANIOLA AND THE CYCLONIC CENTER...BETWEEN 67W AND 70W. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN REACHING THE
COASTAL PLAINS/COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN HISPANIOLA DURING THE
LAST SIX HOURS OR SO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
16N TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 68W AND 70W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA-TO-CENTRAL AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE IS
ALONG THE LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 22N84W...TO EASTERN HONDURAS/
WESTERN NICARAGUA...TO WESTERN COASTAL COSTA RICA. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN
AREA OF BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
FROM 16N NORTHWARD FROM 74W WESTWARD...INCLUDING IN CUBA AND
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 100W IN MEXICO FROM 22N SOUTHWARD...
MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN
AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IT IS NOT EASY TO FIND
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT CLEARLY IS RELATED JUST TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 16N17W...PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS...
AND CURVING TO THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG 28W
TROPICAL WAVE. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER...TO 9N30W 5N38W AND 5N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ALONG THE AFRICA COAST FROM 5N10W
TO 9N14W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N
TO 8N BETWEEN 33W AND 53W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 4N TO
10N BETWEEN 25W AND 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 28N92W...OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W WESTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS
FROM 90W EASTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...THROUGH
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND NEAR 30N84W TO 24N83W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG ALONG THE FLORIDA
COAST FROM 28N TO 30N.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT ICAO STATION
KXIH...KVAF...KGBK...AND KCRH.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A.
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE IN
TEXAS FROM ALICE TO KINGSVILLE AND FALFURRIAS. LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE TO THE NORTH OF HOUSTON TEXAS. A LOW CLOUD CEILING
IS BEING REPORTED IN LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA...AND IN FLORIDA AT
MARY ESTHER AND VALPARAISO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA-TO-CENTRAL AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE IS
ALONG THE LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 22N84W...TO EASTERN HONDURAS/
WESTERN NICARAGUA...TO WESTERN COASTAL COSTA RICA. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN
AREA OF BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
FROM 16N NORTHWARD FROM 74W WESTWARD...INCLUDING IN CUBA AND
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
PASSING THROUGH 17N55W TO 10N57W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 70W
EASTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 12N...ACROSS BARBADOS...TO 17N BETWEEN 55W AND
62W...INCLUDING PASSING ACROSS THE NEARBY EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 60W AND 70W TO THE
SOUTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
06/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.99 IN
GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N74W IN COLOMBIA...ACROSS SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF PANAMA...THROUGH SOUTHERN COSTA RICA NEAR
8N83W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA AND SECTIONS OF
EASTERN PANAMA FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 73W AND 79W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 68W AND 74W.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N73W
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS HAITI...TO COASTAL COLOMBIA
NEAR 10N74W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS AS IT PASSES
THROUGH HAITI. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...BEING ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 25N70W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE 25N70W CYCLONIC CENTER BETWEEN NORTHEASTERN COASTAL
HISPANIOLA AND THE CYCLONIC CENTER...BETWEEN 67W AND 70W. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN REACHING THE
COASTAL PLAINS/COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN HISPANIOLA DURING THE
LAST SIX HOURS OR SO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
16N TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 68W AND 70W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING
ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA
CANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND
A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN SANTIAGO. MULTILAYERED CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT 25N70W
ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT BROAD CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 25N70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 60W WESTWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO A
31N41W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N47W...TO 22N50W...TO
17N55W...AND TO 10N57W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1015 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N41W...TO 26N41W AND TO
22N43W.CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 24N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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