[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED SEP 4 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXITED THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA THIS MORNING AND
EXTENDS FROM 20N17W TO 9N18W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS
WELL DEFINED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA FROM 5-
19N BETWEEN 12W-22W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 19W-24W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N42W TO 9N45W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MOIST AREA FROM 6N-16N BETWEEN
37W-46W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EAST CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF THE
ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N62W TO 12N64W MOVING W AT
15-20 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
MOIST AREA SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 59W-68W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 58W-64W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 23N73W TO 12N74W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA SOUTH OF 15N
WITH A SLOT OF DRY AIR FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 71N AND 79W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED S OF 16N WITHIN 100 NM OF THE WAVE
AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 24N86W TO 15N86W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA NORTH OF 16N
BETWEEN 83N AND 87W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED S
OF 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 87W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO
8N19W TO 8N31W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 8N31W TO 9N45W TO 8N52W TO
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N62W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION... SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 19W AND 24W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY CONTINUE OVER MEXICO AND IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MEXICO/TX COAST FROM 21N TO
29N E OF 95W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE ATLANTIC
NEAR 32N67W EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF. MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT AROUND THIS HIGH DOMINATES THE
GULF. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE
IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA
WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF.
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERING THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES IS HELPING TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE E GULF E OF
89W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE EASTERN...CENTRAL...AND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT COVER THE ENTIRE
BASIN. OTHER THAN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES...UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS HELPING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION LOCATED
FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 77W AND 85W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
18N85W PRODUCING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N71W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ADVANCE WESTWARD ACROSS
THE LESSER AND GREATER ANTILLES WITH THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
BASIN TROPICAL WAVES. THE WESTERN TROPICAL WAVE WILL SHIFT
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE ENHANCED
CONVECTION IN THOSE LOCATIONS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXITING THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND
WHILE ANOTHER WAVE IS APPROACHING THE ISLAND FROM THE EAST. THIS
FIRST WAVE CONTAINED SOME DRY AIR WHICH LIMITED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SECOND WAVE
IS BEGINNING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TODAY. EXPECT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA AT 32N67W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 25N45W TO 30N24W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 36W AND 47W. AS OF
1500Z...A SURFACE TROUGH IS NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS FROM
NEAR 31N78W SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. OTHER CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
ALONG THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED IN THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA/LATTO


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