[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020528
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AS OF 02/0300 UTC...THE LOCATION OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
CENTER IS NEAR 21.0N 93.9W...HOLDING A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35
KT. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WNW AT 09 KT AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED TSTMS IS FROM 19N-
22N BETWEEN 92W-95W. ISOLATED CONVECTION EXTENDS TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SEE THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS AROUND 200 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 15N28W TO 07N28W...MOVING WEST AT 10
KT. ENHANCED METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF
SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR SURROUNDING THIS WAVE WHICH IS LIMITING
THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 26W-
31W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 19N44W TO 10N49W...MOVING WEST AT 20 KT. SAHARAN DUST AND
DRY AIR IS ALSO SURROUNDING THIS WAVE. ISOLATED CONVECTION
CONTINUES S OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 48W-50W.

A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 19N61W TO 10N61W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. SOME DRY
SAHARAN AIR IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS IN ITS SOUTHERN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING A FEW CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 61W-63W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 22N71W TO 10N72W...MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...STRONG
DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR IS INHIBITING DEEP
CONVECTION. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 06N20W TO 07N27W TO 06N35W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 06N35W TO 10N48W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 07N58W.
THE ONLY CONVECTION PRESENT NEAR THESE FEATURES ARE RELATED TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE CONTINUES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE W FLORIDA COAST GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE NE GULF
WATERS...MAINLY ALONG 83W. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF GENERATING DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE SE GULF. OTHERWISE...EXCEPT FOR THE SW
GULF...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT
PREVAILS. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IN SPECIAL FEATURES
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER STRONG DEEP
LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR PREVAILS ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE
BASIN HINDERING THE FORMATION OF DEEP CONVECTION. PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. TRADES OF 10-15
KT SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL BE ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
TODAY BRINGING SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
BASIN.

...HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND...HOWEVER STRONG
DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR PREVAILS ACROSS THIS REGION WHICH
IS HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION. A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND SOME ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY LEFT BY THE TROPICAL
WAVE PASSAGE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS SOUTH OF 28N BETWEEN
72W-80W. FARTHER EAST...A TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM 29N48W TO 27N51W. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER
DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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