[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301728
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 09.5N45W IS MOVING W-NW 15 KT. THE
LOW LIES ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER THE
SYSTEM LACKS ANY ORGANIZED SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 07N-10N BETWEEN 43W-48W.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N27W TO 10N27W AND IS MOVING W
15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE
WHICH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. CONVECTION
REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER COVERING MUCH OF
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...HOWEVER ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
LOCATED AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS TO 30W FROM 09N-12N.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N52W TO 10N49W AND IS MOVING W 15-
20 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS TO THE W-NW OF THE 1012 MB SURFACE LOW
DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. THE WAVE REMAINS
WITHIN THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE
INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W TO
08N35W TO 09N47W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENGE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 09N47W TO 07N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
LOCATED WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N24W TO
07N35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CUTS ACROSS THE GULF FROM THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST TO 26N90W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE MODERATE WINDS EITHER SIDE OF
THE RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA TO 27N89W AND
CONTINUES NW AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED ALONG AND UP TO 90-120 NM
S OF THE FRONT. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR N OF THE FRONT. A 1018 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 25N92.5W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED
OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE LOCATED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N
OF 15N W OF 78W. A BROAD MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
LOCATED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND ALONG THE COSTA RICA
COAST. FAIR WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
MINIMAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DUE TO CONFLUENCE ALOFT COVERS THE
ISLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW TSTMS ARE FORECAST LATER
IN THE DAY MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAIN SECTIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE AREA N OF 29N W OF 72W DUE TO A
LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...ABOUT 8-9 DEGREES IN
DIAMETER...IS CENTERED NEAR 25N67W. THE CIRCULATION IS FORECAST
TO MOVE SLOWLY S OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ANOTHER MIDDLE/UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS POSITIONED NEAR 29N47W AND IS
DRIFTING S. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE LOCATED
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC S OF 20N E OF 50W INTO AFRICA. AT THE
SURFACE A 1028 MB HIGH IS LOCATED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
36N55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB


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