[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 300004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 9N40W...
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO
11N BETWEEN 37W AND 43W. THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION PATTERN
THAT SURROUNDS THE LOW CENTER REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS FEATURE MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. THE CHANCE OF FORMATION DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT....WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO
11 FEET WITHIN 90 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM SOUTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS
AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM NORTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE WITHIN 240 NM
SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 6N TO 18N BETWEEN 18W
AND 26W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS WAVE IS JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 9N40W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 12N TO
15N BETWEEN 42W AND 44W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG 96W/97W...FROM 22N SOUTHWARD...MOVING
WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG IN MEXICO BETWEEN 92W AND 98W. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE WAVE MAY BE ENHANCING SOME OF THE AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 14N17W TO 8N26W 10N36W...TO THE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 9N40W...TO 7N48W. THE ITCZ IS NOT PRESENT AT THIS
TIME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 23W AND 28W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 40W AND 48W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 51W AND 55W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
9N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 58W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS FROM 70W WESTWARD...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE EASTERN
AND NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A....TO 30N79W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N79W TO 30N83W IN
NORTHERN FLORIDA...ACROSS THE WATERS OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG THE U.S.A. COAST TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N76W...ACROSS FLORIDA
NEAR 28N82W...TO 27N88W AND 28N93W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN FLORIDA FROM 25N TO 29N...IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W. MULTILAYERED
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 26N70W 22N77W...IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 24N81W
24N90W 26N97W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 29/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/ SXCA01
KNHC...IS 0.11 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS.

A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N95W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
THAT IS AWAY FROM THE 31N76W 28N93W SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH HAZE IS BEING REPORTED AT
THE ICAO STATION KHQI.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN TEXAS FROM BAY CITY TO
GALVESTON. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE CORPUS CHRISTI METROPOLITAN
AREA. A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE NEW
ORLEANS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AND IN TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA.
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN COASTAL
SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS
BROOKSVILLE FLORIDA. RAINSHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS IN THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA...IN SARASOTA...
AND IN THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION
IN KEY WEST FLORIDA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 25N65W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 29N BETWEEN 57W AND 71W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA AND COASTAL WATERS...TO 29N BETWEEN
60W AND 70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH 7N78W
AND BEYOND 8N85W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND
NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W...AND IN
PANAMA BETWEEN 77W AND 79W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 77W AND 87W.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WILL JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...
EVEN DIRECTLY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 48
HOURS. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN
AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE
WIND FLOW.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. EXPECT ALSO
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM
10.5N TO 16N BETWEEN 73W AND 83W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 25N65W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 29N
BETWEEN 57W AND 71W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA AND
COASTAL WATERS...TO 29N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 22N51W TO 17N53W
TO 10N57W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 210
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM THE LINE 14N58W 12N55W
11N53W TO 22N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 9N TO 21N BETWEEN 53W
AND 61W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 30N49W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE AREA FROM 25N TO 33N BETWEEN 45W AND 55W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 28N
TO 33N BETWEEN 46W AND 54W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO
24N29W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF 20N36W BEYOND
32N21W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO NEAR 32N17W TO 21N27W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8
FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 47W AND 58W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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