[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS REACHING CENTRAL ATLC WATERS. ITS AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 18N33W TO 10N36W AND HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 15 KT DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS. METEOSAT SAL TRACKING IMAGERY INDICATE THE WAVE
CONTINUES EMBEDDED IN THE DRY SAHARAN AIRMASS WHICH IS
INHIBITING CONVECTION AT THE TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 17N65W TO 10N66W MOVING W AT 20 KT IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE S OF 15N.
HOWEVER...STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN INHIBITS CONVECTION AT THE TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 21N87W TO 11N88W
AND HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 20 KT DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
WAVE ENVIRONMENT IS MOSTLY DRY IN THE LOW TO UPPER LEVELS
LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 18N-21N W OF
81W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR
11N16W AND THEN CONTINUES ALONG 8N29W TO 9N41W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N41W TO 9N50W
TO 9N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N E OF
20W...FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 25W-33W AND FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 37W-
52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

EXCEPT FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE...MOSTLY DRY AIR IS ACROSS THE BASIN AT THE LOWER
LEVELS. ALOFT...THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN ANTICYCLONE
ANCHORED OVER NEW MEXICO COVERS MOST OF THE WESTERN GULF WHILE
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS COVERS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN BASIN. THIS IS LEAVING
THE CENTRAL GULF WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH CURRENTLY SUPPORTING A
TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE WAVE IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N E OF 93W...INCLUDING THE
WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM TAMPA TO
BOCA GRANDE FLORIDA AS WELL AS ADJACENT WATERS. RIDGING ALOFT
ACROSS THE GULF IS SUPPORTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEING
ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 27N89W. SURFACE RIDGING IS
PROVIDING VARIABLE WINDS OF 5-15 KT ACROSS THE BASIN.
ELSEWHERE...AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS CLEAR SKIES.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SW GULF SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING
AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARDS THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SW N ATLC ALONG WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE
GENERATING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WHICH ALONG MODERATE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL CUBA. A TROPICAL
WAVE FORMERLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS IS MOVING
INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR DETAILS. THE
CONTINUATION OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BASIN SUPPORTS TRADES OF 20-30 KT S OF 17N BETWEEN 66W-82W...THE
STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE OVER COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA AND NW
VENEZUELA BEING ENHANCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH. STRONG DEEP
LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT
SUPPORT CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN. THE TROPICAL
WAVE S OF PUERTO RICO IS FORECAST TO MOVE S OF HISPANIOLA
SUNDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXCEPT FOR
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS BEING ENHANCED BY DAYTIME
HEATING...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
MORNING TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BEING GENERATED BY AN INVERTED
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER
THE SW N ATLC SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NW OF FREEPORT.
FARTHER EAST...A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N62W
ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 24N-26N
BETWEEN 61W-65W. OVER THE E ATLC...A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF
THE AREA EXTENDS A TROUGH SW WITH A BASE NEAR 25N. THIS CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SUPPORT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N30W SW TO 23N42W WITH NO
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS FAIRLY DRY
AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1024
MB HIGH NEAR 30N56W AND A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 30N21W. THESE TWO
FACTORS SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE IN THE BASIN.
OTHERWISE...SEE ABOVE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. SURFACE
RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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