[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261722
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N30W TO 10N32W AND IS MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A DRY SAHARAN AIRMASS WHICH IS INHIBITING
ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE FAR SE
CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 14N61W TO 09N63W AND IS
MOVING W AT ABOUT 20 KT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
10N-14N BETWEEN 60W-65W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 23N80W TO 10N81W AND IS MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE
LATEST VISIBLE INDICATES NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR
14N16W AND THEN CONTINUES ALONG 09N25W TO 09N40W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N40W TO
10N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED
WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS OF 11N25W...WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 09N36W TO 09N42W...AND ALONG AND S OF THE ITCZ TO 07N
BETWEEN 49W AND 56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SMALL MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS POSITIONED
OVER THE SE GULF NEAR 25N85W AND IS MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT.
MODERATE EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER THE GULF N
OF 27N WITH SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATING SPEEDS AS
HIGH AS 40 KT. AT THE SURFACE A 1019 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR
26N87W AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY E. THE GULF IS VOID OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION EXCEPT ALONG THE SW FLORIDA COAST NEAR
NAPLES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER THE CARIBBEAN N OF
13N W OF 70W WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IN THIS AREA. BROAD RIDGING AT THE UPPER LEVELS
COVERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN S OF 17N E OF 68W. EXCEPT FOR THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN THE BASIN IS VOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE AREA IS AT THE SOUTHERN PART OF A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR
25N75W. EXCEPT FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SCATTERED
SHOWERS...FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE ISLAND SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 25N75W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW LOCATED
W OF 70W. A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION...8 TO 10 DEGREES IN DIAMETER...IS CENTERED NEAR
26N63W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
LOCATED FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 60W AND 67W. WINDS ARE STRONGEST
ON THE W SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION AND MEASURE AS HIGH AS 50 TO 60
KT. ANOTHER WEAKER MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
POSITIONED NEAR 31N46W AND IS MOVING S ABOUT 10 KT. CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT IS LOCATED N OF 28N E OF 42W. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT
COVERS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC S OF ABOUT 24N TO THE EQUATOR E OF
40W INTO AFRICA. AT THE SURFACE A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
30N58W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED THROUGH 32N27W TO 24N43W. A
1019 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 27N25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB


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