[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N18W TO 10N19W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. METEOSAT
SAL TRACKING PRODUCT INDICATE THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE DRY
SAHARAN AIRMASS WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTION AT THE TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
12N49W TO 4N50W MOVING W AT 15 KT IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 45W-57W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL-EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N66W TO 12N69W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS. MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS NOTED IN THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON COASTAL WATERS OF SW PUERTO RICO.
ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR AND STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR
HINDER CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 11N15W
TO 9N27W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
9N27W AND THEN CONTINUES ALONG 9N40W TO 7N49W. IT THEN RESUMES W
OF A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 7N51W TO 6N55W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
MENTIONED ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 20W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN BEING
ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...MIDDLE-LEVEL AND SURFACE
RIDGING ARE SUPPORTING STABILITY AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BASIN-
WIDE. REMNANT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS BEING ENHANCED BY A
REGION OF DIFFLUENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS ARE S OF 25N BETWEEN
80W-86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
S OF 20N E OF 93W ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM 21N89W TO 17N94W. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE LIGHT WINDS OF 5-10
KT ARE ACROSS THE BASIN. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER IS
FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
BASIN WHICH ALONG MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 14N BETWEEN 75W-85W. A SIMILAR
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED
TSTMS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 58W-62W. THIS CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER THE EASTERN-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WATERS. SEE ABOVE  TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE FOR
DETAILS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC BASIN IS SUPPORTING
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO
SUPPORT TRADES OF 20-25 KT S OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 67W-80W. THE
TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA
BY SAT MORNING WHILE A NEW WAVE ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND EARLY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS JUST W OF PUERTO
RICO WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND FRI TO EARLY SATURDAY
SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS BEING ENHANCED BY MODERATE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH N OF 26N...THE REMAINDER BASIN
IS FAIRLY DRY AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 29N52W. THESE TWO FACTORS
SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE IN THE BASIN. OTHERWISE...SEE
ABOVE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLC. HOWEVER...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NE AREA OF DISCUSSION BY
FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN SINK INTO THE EASTERN ATLC SUN AND MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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