[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 4N47W TO 13N45W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT.
THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE A POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAX ALONG A BROADER
700 MB TROUGH AXIS. THE WAVE REMAINS SOUTH OF LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
JET N OF 9N LARGELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER ACROSS
THE TROPICAL ATLC. AS A RESULT...CONVECTION REMAINS SUPPRESSED N
OF 08N WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING FROM 5N-8N
BETWEEN 45W-49W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N65W TO 19N61W MOVING W AT 20-25
KT. THE WAVE INCLUDES REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO AND
INCORPORATES THE NORTHERN POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAX OF A 700 MB
TROUGH. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-16N
BETWEEN 58W-67W...INCLUDING A PORTION OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. A
LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST FOLLOWS E OF THE WAVE WITH LEADING
EDGE NOTED E OF 60W.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH S MEXICO EXTENDS S OF 20N ALONG
96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 93W-96W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST
NEAR 19N16W TO 10N25W. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 10N25W TO 09N40W TO 04N51W. EXCEPT FOR CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE...THERE IS MINIMAL CONVECTION
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
NEAR 30N93W. UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
NEAR 23N84W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA
W-SW TO 25N90W TO EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 25N98W. LITTLE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT NORTHWARD TO SET UP ROUGHLY ALONG 27N THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER W CUBA NEAR 23N84W MOVING INTO SE GULF OF
MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MAINLY DRY AND SUBSIDENT
AIR ALOFT PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS NE CARIBBEAN
INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS OCCURRING FROM 14N-
16N BETWEEN 61W-71W. MOST OF THIS IS CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
STRETCHED OUT REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DEGENERATED TO
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 62W-63W. THE WAVE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY WEST
AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES IN THE E CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF 17N
WITH PEAK WINDS NEAR GALE EACH MORNING NEAR COAST OF COLOMBIA
THROUGH THE END OF WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN FROM MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT
RELATED TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE ISLAND. MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS ARE EAST OF THE ISLAND AS WELL. A TROPICAL WAVE THE
REMNANTS OF T.D. TWO IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ISLAND LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR
29N76W. SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM 32N61W
TO 23N63W. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM SUBTROPICAL HIGH NEAR
29N46W ALONG 28N TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W. MOSTLY FAIR
SKIES AND FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
THE OCEANIC AREA EXCEPT IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL
WAVES NOTED MOVING W OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND IN CENTRAL ATLC
ALONG 46W. A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SAHARAN DUST STRETCHING MOSTLY NORTH
OF 10N AND EAST OF 55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MUNDELL


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