[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 231135
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...AT 23/0900 UTC...WAS
NEAR 13.9N 53.2W...ABOUT 480 NM TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 17 KNOTS. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PUBLIC
ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 52W AND 55W.

A GALE WARNING EXISTS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR NORTHEAST TO EAST
GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10 TO 14 FEET FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. EXPECT EAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W
AND 80W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N43W TO 3N43W...
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 40W AND 45W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W...TO THE
SOUTH OF 21N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS
PASSING THROUGH HONDURAS AND WESTERN NICARAGUA...AND MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED NEAR 17N80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA
NEAR 19N16W TO 8N27W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N29W TO 3N37W TO
4N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 4N TO
7N BETWEEN 32W AND 37W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI/SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
TROUGH AND CYCLONIC CENTER SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
MEANDERS FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND
EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 88W AND 96W IN
EASTERN TEXAS.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 32N34W...TO 29N45W 29N61W...TO 30N78W...ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO STATIONS...KGVX...KXIH...KVQT...AT KEIR WITH A VISIBILITY
OF 2 MILES OR LESS AND FOG...KSPR...KMIS... KMDJ...AND KIPN. A
CLOUD CEILING IS AT 6500 FEET AT KDLP.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL
PLAINS AND NEARBY AREAS THAT ARE SLIGHTLY MORE INLAND IN TEXAS.
A FEW SITES ARE REPORTING HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS SUCH AS IN
THE CORPUS CHRISTI AREA AND IN PARTS OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN
AREA. A CEILING AT 6500 FEET IS BEING OBSERVED AT ANGLETON/LAKE
JACKSON. NO LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE
IN THE GULF COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA...

CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N TO 25N
BETWEEN 70W AND 85W. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
17N80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 19N TO
20N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF AND ALONG THE
COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO PANAMA NEAR
7N/8N ALONG 81W...AND BEYOND 7N86W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG EXTENDS FROM
THE COAST OF PANAMA ALONG 80W INTO NORTHEASTERN COSTA RICA AND
SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUERTO PLATA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT 17N80W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD...ENDING UP
IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 48 HOURS. ANY AMOUNT OF HIGH
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA AS THE
CYCLONIC CENTER MOVES MORE AND MORE AWAY FROM THE AREA. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA...FROM A 28N74W ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO HAITI BY THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ABOUT 150 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE GFS
MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE
AREA WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN
AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE
WIND FLOW...FROM 73W EASTWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN
INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 23/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/
SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.11 IN GUADELOUPE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 27N64W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
35N46W TO 30N45W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N21W TO 25N33W AND 23N38W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...FROM 20N TO 30N
FROM 30W WESTWARD. NUMEROUS STRONG 30N TO 33N BETWEEN 78W AND
80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING
AT 23/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/ SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.99 IN
BERMUDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 32N34W...TO 29N45W 29N61W...TO 30N78W...ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN 70W AND 73W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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