[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 230236
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014
1100 PM AST TUE JUL 22 2014

The tropical depression is producing a little more deep convection
than it was earlier today.  Satellite images indicate that the
convective pattern consists of a small circular area of
thunderstorms near the estimated center, with limited banding
features surrounding it.  The initial wind speed remains 30 kt
based on a Dvorak classification from TAFB and ADT values from
UW-CIMSS.

The global models show the depression becoming highly titled in the
vertical during the next day or so due to a substantial increase in
shear.  These unfavorable environmental winds combined with a dry
air mass should prevent significant strengthening.  The cyclone is
forecast to become a remnant low or open into a trough in 36 to 48
h, but this could occur sooner as suggested by some of the models.

The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 16 kt.  An even
faster westward to west-northwestward motion is predicted, taking
the depression, or its remnants, across the the Lesser Antilles
late Wednesday or on Thursday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 13.4N  51.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 13.7N  53.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 14.4N  57.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 15.1N  61.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 15.9N  65.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


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