[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 221436
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014
1100 AM AST TUE JUL 22 2014

The depression continues to produce deep convection in a band to the
west and southwest of the center and the initial intensity remains
30 kt based on the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB. There is
no change to the intensity forecast reasoning, as the cyclone will
be moving through an environment of dry air and increasing shear
that will not favor strengthening. The global models and the HWRF
show the vortex weakening and opening up into a trough near the
Lesser Antilles by 48 hours or shortly thereafter. The NHC forecast
includes a 48-h point as a remnant low, but it would not be
surprising if the system had already dissipated by that time.

The initial motion estimate is 280/15, as the depression continues
to be steered by a deep-layer ridge to the north. A quick westward
to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue through
dissipation. The dynamical track model guidance remains in good
agreement on this scenario, and the new NHC track is largely an
update of the previous one.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 12.6N  48.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 12.9N  50.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 13.3N  53.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 13.9N  56.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  24/1200Z 14.8N  60.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan


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