[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 220242
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014
1100 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014

The compact depression has not changed much during the past several
hours.  The system is producing a small area of deep convection near
the center and a few fragmented bands mainly on the south side of
the circulation.  An ASCAT pass around 0010 UTC captured the western
half of the system and indicated that winds are light and variable
to the south of the center, suggesting that the system has not
become better defined.

The dynamical models, both regional and global, are in good
agreement in showing the system weakening into a trough by the time
it reaches the Lesser Antilles.  The primary reasons for the
weakening in these models appear to be dry air and possibly
mid-level shear.  The SHIPS and LGEM models show the cyclone gaining
strength, but this scenario seems unlikely given the
expected unfavorable environmental conditions.  The official
intensity forecast follows the trend in the dynamical model
guidance, and is the same as the previous forecast.

Satellite fixes suggest that depression has moved a little to the
north of the previous track, and the latest initial motion estimate
is 280/14.  A subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone should
keep it moving westward to west-northwestward during the next few
days.  This track takes the depression, or its remnants, over the
Lesser Antilles in 2 to 3 days.  The NHC track forecast is a little
to the north of the previous one, primarily to account for the
initial position, and lies fairly close to the multi-model consensus
TVCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 12.0N  45.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 12.5N  47.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 13.0N  49.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  23/1200Z 13.5N  52.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  24/0000Z 14.5N  56.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  25/0000Z 16.7N  63.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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