[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200502
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N32W TO AN EMBEDDED 1014 MB LOW
NEAR 7N37W TO 5N36W MOVING W 15 KT. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL CYCLONIC TURNING TO THE NE OF THE CURRENT
SURFACE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N
BETWEEN 32W-37W.

A TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 14N55W TO
4N57W MOVING W 15-20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 18N69W
TO 9N70W MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 13N17W AND CONTINUES TO 9N30W TO 7N40W TO 7N45W. THE
ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 7N45W AND CONTINUES TO 10N55W. THE ITCZ RESUMES
W OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT 10N57W AND EXTENDS TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN
COAST NEAR 10N61W. IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVES...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N
BETWEEN 17W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0300 A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE COASTS OF
LOUISIANA AND TEXAS FROM BATON ROUGE TO GALVESTON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOUISIANA COAST.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 83W. 10-15 KT SE TO S
SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S TEXAS NEAR 27N99W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING E TO N FLORIDA. A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 23N. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT CONTINUED MORE
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF...FLORIDA...AND CUBA
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 15-25
KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
REMAIN OVER HAITI...JAMAICA...AND THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN COAST OF
CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER PANAMA. MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S MEXICO
NEAR 16N94W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF
HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N72W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE TO THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE TO ADVECT OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAIN OVER HAITI. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE CONVECTION TO BE OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HEATING...AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW S OF THE
ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST W OF THE N BAHAMAS FROM 27N79W TO CUBA
AT 22N79W. A LARGE 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 37N40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N54W TO 24N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE BAHAMAS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 74W-79W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N61W ENHANCING SHOWERS.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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